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Labour Party Watch
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adam2
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Joined: 02 Jul 2007
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 24, 2016 1:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Corbyn wins leadership vote.
According to very recent press release.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 24, 2016 4:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Corbyn is not the one. But, he is a necessary placeholder on the journey to finding the one. For that reason, he had to win. Thank God he has.
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 24, 2016 8:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It would be interesting to see how many votes were disallowed and to estimate how much bigger the majority would have been.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 24, 2016 10:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PS_RalphW wrote:
It would be interesting to see how many votes were disallowed and to estimate how much bigger the majority would have been.

130,000 recent members weren't allowed to vote, it's assume they are more pro-Corbyn than the earlier members. I don't know how big the recent purge was but given I personally know of a few it must have been in the thousands.

It's crystal clear the Corbyn is the fair and overwhelming choice of the party members (and supporters and union affiliates). As such any Labour MP who isn't able to work with him for whatever reason really needs to ask themselves if they should still be a Labour MP, rather than an independent or member of another party.
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Catweazle



Joined: 17 Feb 2008
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Location: Little England, over the hills

PostPosted: Sat Sep 24, 2016 10:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
.......As such any Labour MP who isn't able to work with him for whatever reason really needs to ask themselves if they should still be a Labour MP, rather than an independent or member of another party.


New Labour ?
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Sat Sep 24, 2016 10:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, Corbyn has won, the Blairites have lost. They cannot displace Corbyn before the next election, and, crucially, even if Labour loses that election, it is still hard to see a way back for them. That is because Corbyn will remain in charge, but be too old to face a second election, which gives him a free hand to do everything in his power to purge the labour party of what remains of the Blairites, before retiring.
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 24, 2016 10:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A lot of people who were disallowed could still sign up in another way. I have no idea of the figures, however.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2017 10:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It is going to be very interesting if Labour loses to UKIP in Stoke. Especially if Corbyn refuses to resign the leadership afterwards.

If Labour can't win in Stoke, then they are going to lose the next general election badly, and the tories will win with a significantly increased majority. In other words, his leadership will actually result in the exact opposite of what he's trying to achieve.

Labour needs to re-invent itself, not as neo-Blairite but as representing the working class in Brexit Britain. At the moment it appeals almost exclusively to very left wing, middle class remainers. And there simply aren't enough of those for Labour to hold on to what should be safe Labour seats in industrial parts of England. Labour has already imploded in Scotland, and if it doesn't change direction pretty soon it is going to implode in its English heartland.

Corbyn has made his point. He's defeated the Blairites. But now it is time for him to go, to give the Labour Party a chance of at least forcing a hung parliament in 2020.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm slowly coming round to that view UE. But, who would replace him? I don't see anyone other than Blairites and various management types. All of which would fare little better than Corbyn.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is only one sensible candidate, IMO. Chuka Umuna doesn't want the job, I think Tom Watson would fail to appeal to ordinary people, David Miliband isn't an MP, Hilary Benn says he doesn't want the job and isn't popular enough within the party, and I can only see one other believable candidate: Dan Jarvis.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/labour-faces-significant-consequences-over-9652523

He is exactly the sort of person who could win back the people who Corbyn is losing in Stoke.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2017 11:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/09/dan-jarvis-vision-for-labour-leadership-talk-corbyn-challenge

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35774273

I think with Jarvis as leader, Labour would bounce back above the Tories in the polls. Unlikely to make much headway in Scotland, but I think Labour has lost Scotland for good. On the other hand, I don't think that matters, because the SNP would go into coalition with Labour, and even if they demanded a second referendum on independence, they'd lose it again.
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
It is going to be very interesting if Labour loses to UKIP in Stoke. Especially if Corbyn refuses to resign the leadership afterwards.

I would be very surprised if UKIP won. As it stands Labour will lose the next general election badly (much worse than 1983).
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2017 10:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming2 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
It is going to be very interesting if Labour loses to UKIP in Stoke. Especially if Corbyn refuses to resign the leadership afterwards.

I would be very surprised if UKIP won.


That's exactly what you said about Trump.
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johnhemming2



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PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

True. I was surprised. However, the consequent chaos is not surprising. As far as Stoke goes I don't think a UKIP victory will result in chaos, however.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Sat Feb 11, 2017 11:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming2 wrote:
True. I was surprised.


As were a lot of other people, but not me, because I'd been predicting a Trump victory for several months. Exactly the same forces are at work here: the political establishment and middle class are still under-estimating the anti-globalisation, anti-EU, anti-immigration sentiment that has built up in working class areas, and which drove Brexit and Trump. You'd think they might have learned something by now, but it seems not.

I think the outcome is in the balance, and a UKIP victory is a very distinct possibility. Corbyn's stance on immigration might be popular in London, but it is nothing short of suicidal in places like Stoke. Especially at a by-election.

Quote:

As far as Stoke goes I don't think a UKIP victory will result in chaos, however.


It might result in chaos in the Labour Party.
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