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Multi-metre ice loss on decadal timescale - Hanson
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Sat Sep 12, 2015 7:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

biffvernon wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:

I would expect low lying areas like Florida or Bangladesh to be diked and drained similar to the Netherlands as long as there are populations needing the farm land. But that is treating the symptoms not curing the disease.


Two problems;one for each.

Florida does not have the same geology as the Netherlands. For dikes to keep the sea out you need impermeable material at the surface. Clay does this in the Netherlands, sand does not do this in Florida. Florida will have to be abandoned.

Bangladesh does not have the wealth to build dikes. Much of Banlgadesh will have to be abandoned.

The sand in Florida is an engineering problem that may or may not have a solution that is cost effective. And they have decades to work the problem. Bangladesh's poverty may force the abandonment of the country by it's present population but China or India, desperate for increased food supplies will move in to seize it. Might even go to war over it. Same with the Mekong delta.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Other parts of Florida sit on equally porous limestone. That's an awful lot of grouting to form an impervious barrier and even on the clays of the Netherlands they had a lot of windmills.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 13, 2015 3:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
kenneal - lagger wrote:
That's just the point Chris. The extremes of scientific thinking are what is occurring in fact. The safe science that the politicians will accept is not what is happening and the politicians need to be shocked out of their complacency.

2 deg C is NOT safe!

2 deg C will flood large parts of the world and some of the most expensive parts and more importantly, the most productive food wise, at that.

2 deg C is 2 deg C too high!

The ice is melting at 1 deg C and we need to be reducing the amount of carbon in the atmosphere not increasing it further. If Hansen can convince our corrupt political class, the Kleptocracy, that they could well suffer in their lifetimes it can only be a good thing and they may well then do something about the problem.


I don't quite follow what you're saying.

Science doesn't have much to say about subjective and value laden terms such as 'safe'. You and I both know the 2C business is politics, not science. Do not try and caricature the scientific community as claiming 2C is 'safe'.

My point is that if one wants to make objective, evidence based arguments, claiming the authority of science - don't lean too heavily on Hansen. His position is extreme, it is not likely. To claim anything else is to take a step away from the science. Which of course is your right, many people operate many steps away from the science. Just be aware Hansen's (yet to be accepted) paper is beyond even the outspoken the of scientific community like Jason Box who you linked to above.


All the IPCC reports have turned out to be very conservative or safe. The scientists have taken the easily defensible positions as they are more likely to be adopted by politicians. Well the politicians have decided that as what the scientists are saying isn't too frightening they will just ignore it.

Hansen has been promoting the more extreme end of the scientific options and hasn't been far wrong. He might be at the more extreme end now but I would rather "pay for the insurance" and hope that he is wrong than not "pay for the insurance" and find that he is right.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 16, 2015 6:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
..............And the sea level rise however large it may turn out to be will take place over decades. Long before that other pressing problems will come to a head and get resolved in ways that will most probably reduce both the pollution causing the temperature rise and the need for coastal land.
We are heading head long into the explosion of the population bomb which will create shortages of everything from drinking water to caskets, and we will have to face those realities in person long before the tide line moves inland ten miles.


This article says that the sea level has already risen by a foot (300mm) along the Atlantic coast of the US because of a slowing of the Gulf Stream and could eventually rise by over a metre. this would be on top of any rise caused by increased water levels directly from the increased volume of ice melt.

It is also not good for the weather in Northern Europe as a slowing of the Gulf Stream will reduce the amount of tropical heat that is received here. I'll have to get that extra polytunnel up and running although it will have to be well battened down to take the increased winds forecast.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 23, 2015 2:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's an article relating to how sea level rise could speed up

and a referenced article, published 2013, from the above with more information

and a referenced article from that saying that the latest IPCC report specifically excludes new science on Glacial ice loss is its estimation of from 0.18 to 0.59 metres of sea level rise by the last decade of this century. The article concludes that this new science shows that sea levels could rise by between "three and six feet". This article is from 2010 so with Hansen's knowledge of more recent research the likely sea level rise could be more in the region that he has suggested.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Wed Sep 23, 2015 7:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
Regardless of whither 2 deg. C is safe or not it does not appear that there is anything plausible we can do to stop it happening. And the sea level rise however large it may turn out to be will take place over decades. Long before that other pressing problems will come to a head and get resolved in ways that will most probably reduce both the pollution causing the temperature rise and the need for coastal land.
We are heading head long into the explosion of the population bomb which will create shortages of everything from drinking water to caskets, and we will have to face those realities in person long before the tide line moves inland ten miles.
yes. Or., rather, these things are all exacerbators of the underlying problem; the global human population level. They will also be its "solution".
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 23, 2015 7:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

One of our, or rather our great grandchildren's, major problems will be the fact that our government are proposing to build new nuclear reactors near current sea level. These won't be completed for about 15 years from which time they will generate for 35 years. They will then be left for 100 years to cool before any major dismantling work goes ahead. They will be around for at least 150 years during which time the sea level could well rise up to 7 metres.

The one proposed for Dungeness, for instance, will be on a spit 5 miles out to sea at 2 metres rise and a full island at 3 metres. The shingle bank its built on has to be rebuilt every few years already due to erosion so when the sea takes over that shingle could disappear rapidly. The fact that it's built on shingle, well piles in the shingle, means that dykes can't be used to protect the land it's built on from rising sea levels as water will flow straight through the shingle.

The others aren't much better!
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clv101
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 23, 2015 8:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dungeness C was ruled out in 2009 due to coastal erosion and flood fears.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 23, 2015 9:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

That would be very sensible but I thought I heard it mentioned recently on the news. There could still be problems though if it is not decommissioned quickly. Sizewell is not far behind Dungeness although it wouldn't be so far our to sea.
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vtsnowedin



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PostPosted: Thu Sep 24, 2015 11:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The owners of Pilgrim I in Plymouth Mass. are considering shutting it down due to the high cost of needed retrofits and maintenance. Vermont Yankee has already shut down for the same reason. Decommissioning will take years. Vermont has already noticed an increase in fish stocks in the Connecticut river which was used for cooling water by Vermont Yankee.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 24, 2015 4:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You might not have electric lighting in the future but at least you will be able to eat. I know which I would prefer!
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vtsnowedin



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PostPosted: Sat Sep 26, 2015 12:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
You might not have electric lighting in the future but at least you will be able to eat. I know which I would prefer!

My family survived here before electricity and would carry on without it but before I turned off the computer I'd go solar ,or wind, or more likely both as the wind power would be more reliable in the winter.
My electric co-op is already 100 percent renewable but if the main grid went down I expect they could not deliver on there own as some of the hydro power comes from Canada via DC lines that bring that power down to the Boston market.
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