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Peak Corporate Earnings (?)
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
Posts: 1649

PostPosted: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cubes wrote:
raspberry-blower wrote:
If only there were a comparable job creation scheme in renewable energy, home insulation retrofit projects and the like.


There is, and the job title is usually "scammer" in a call-centre.


Why the "Green Deal" failed, in a nutshell

Meanwhile two oil companies either side of the pond have hit hard times:

Guardian: BP makes record loss

Bloomberg: Exxon Faces First Downgrade Since Depression

Couldn't have happened to two nicer companies Twisted Evil
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 03, 2016 9:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

not exactly news. Oil prices go down, oil companies have less money.
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AutomaticEarth



Joined: 08 Nov 2010
Posts: 825

PostPosted: Wed Feb 03, 2016 10:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

9
johnhemming2 wrote:
not exactly news. Oil prices go down, oil companies have less money.


Oil up $2.70. Due to weaker dollar and (maybe) OPEC and Russia doing a deal. Maybe the PPT might have something to say? Laughing

Got my new car today. 70mpg petrol on highway. Peak oil has been postponed today. Laughing But peak oil will not go away....
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
Posts: 2160

PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2016 12:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

peak (conventional) oil has already happened.

Quote:
ppt

The sad news for many conspiracy theories is that human beings are not that good at organising things.
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AutomaticEarth



Joined: 08 Nov 2010
Posts: 825

PostPosted: Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming2 wrote:
peak (conventional) oil has already happened.

Quote:
ppt

The sad news for many conspiracy theories is that human beings are not that good at organising things.


Peak oil is very subjective. I'm on the same page as you, but others beg to differ. Head on over to peakoil.com for an alternative view.
. Very Happy

PPT? I was in jest. Human beings might not be that good at organising things, but computers may well be.
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AutomaticEarth



Joined: 08 Nov 2010
Posts: 825

PostPosted: Sat Feb 06, 2016 12:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming2 wrote:
peak (conventional) oil has already happened.

Quote:
ppt

The sad news for many conspiracy theories is that human beings are not that good at organising things.


John, you've stated that conventional oil has peaked (which I agree with). What do your peers (other MPs etc) think? Appreciate this should be on another thread but thought I'd ask the question.
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 06, 2016 10:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Obviously non-conventional oil is now being extracted (as was always going to be the case). The next crunch is likely to be primarily economic (from cuts in investment) rather than geological.

i don't know the details of opinion.
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
Posts: 1649

PostPosted: Tue Feb 09, 2016 10:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming2 wrote:
not exactly news. Oil prices go down, oil companies have less money.


It is the scale of the oil price collapse that is the problem here, John, but that appears to have passed you by.

Different oil companies are, unsurprisingly, taking different options

During financial downturns there are Mergers and Acquisitions - particularly in the Energy sector. There are signs that Exxon is preparing to launch a takeover bid

Quote:
Of course Exxon would also need to assume any debt carried by an acquisition target. But that wouldn’t be a problem — compared with the averaged overleveraged oil company, Exxon has modest gearing with $38 billion in debt outstanding.

Other than Royal Dutch Shell ’s $52 billion takeover of BG Group , we haven’t seen a landmark merger during this downturn. The last time things got this bad for the industry, back in 1998, BP bought Amoco for $48 billion and Exxon bought Mobil for $75 billion.


Who it will be we will find out in due course. BP looks vulnerable though.
However a mega merger is by no means a guarantee that future performance will live up to the hype. In fact it often disappoints.

Bottom line: if you believe in Peak Oil this is just one (albeit a highly significant one) of the signals that we have hit TLTG. Therefore, if this is correct, then we should see this translated into a slowdown in corporate earnings and stagnant/declining profits. That is why I started this thread.

Oh, by the way, the size of the collapse in the oil market? $100 Trillion
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AutomaticEarth



Joined: 08 Nov 2010
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 19, 2016 3:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Uber is complaining that they are up against a Chinese competitor that is making no money!

Are companies western companies operating in China this stupid? Of course China Cab will be more profitable! it's backed by the state.... Rolling Eyes

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35610147
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johnhemming2



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PostPosted: Fri Feb 19, 2016 6:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

raspberry-blower wrote:
if you believe in Peak Oil

Peak Oil is a scientific fact. That there will at some stage be a maximum production. We had that for conventional crude oil in the last decade.

What is unclear is when this will happen with unconventional sources.

A second factor that needs to be taken into account is technological change which has the ability of automating a lot more jobs (including all the taxi drivers).

In the end a corporation that owns the robots can make a lot of profit.
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 19, 2016 6:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Stop for a minute. Let that sink in. The total value of all the world’s oil reserves is over $100 trillion less than it was just a year and a half ago.

Which is irrelevant. The value will go up again with the price. What does matter is any insolvency related to borrowing against reserves. However, it is quite possible that people will hang on for the prices to come back up again at least to some extent.
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biffvernon



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 18543
Location: Lincolnshire

PostPosted: Fri Feb 19, 2016 8:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming2 wrote:

A second factor that needs to be taken into account is technological change which has the ability of automating a lot more jobs (including all the taxi drivers).
In the end a corporation that owns the robots can make a lot of profit.

Which is why the corporations need to be nationalised so that we all benefit from the robots and can spend more time listening to jazz quartets.

cf. Paul Mason the day before yesterday: http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2016/feb/17/automation-may-mean-a-post-work-society-but-we-shouldnt-be-afraid
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 20, 2016 10:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming2 wrote:
raspberry-blower wrote:
if you believe in Peak Oil

Peak Oil is a scientific fact. That there will at some stage be a maximum production. We had that for conventional crude oil in the last decade.

What is unclear is when this will happen with unconventional sources.

A second factor that needs to be taken into account is technological change which has the ability of automating a lot more jobs (including all the taxi drivers).

In the end a corporation that owns the robots can make a lot of profit.


A strawman argument here John that completely takes out of context my original post.

Whilst what you are saying is true, you are not answering the correct question here which makes your point irrelevant.

What this thread is all about is that at some point all this offshoring and technological advances will be subject to diminishing returns.
A tell-tale sign of this was the vast buy-backs that many large corporations have undertaken recently - as a result of QE policy. This is a major red flag that you ignored. If all this technological wizardry could improve the bottom line significantly than we would have seen this cash go into R & D. We did not. Therefore it is highly probable that we have reached a major inflection point.
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 20, 2016 10:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming2 wrote:

Which is irrelevant.


No John, your comment is irrelevant.

johnhemming2 wrote:
The value will go up again with the price. What does matter is any insolvency related to borrowing against reserves. However, it is quite possible that people will hang on for the prices to come back up again at least to some extent.


There is a major oversupply of oil in the market in case you hadn't noticed John. Short of a major black swan event the oil price is highly likely to be trading at the current trading range for some considerable time.

This could be construed as oil - along with most other commodities, beginning to find their true price discovery as the markets have not been distorted by the effects of QE. (the gold and silver markets would certainly NOT fall into this category though)

The only way we would see a recovery in the oil market in the long term would be a resumption of QE. Again, however, this would be subject to diminishing returns. Last time the oil price reached a zenith that was just shy of $110 (depends on which oil index used) In 2008 it was $147. Can you spot the trendline here? It is heading southwards - along the lines of what the likes of Heinberg was saying around ten years ago.
If QE is resumed it is probable that the next oil price peak could be around $80 - $90 a barrel mark. Therefore there will still be highly significant losses overall
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 20, 2016 12:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

raspberry-blower wrote:
Short of a major black swan event the oil price is highly likely to be trading at the current trading range for some considerable time.

How long is "some considerable time". I would expect to see production cuts within a year. The leeway is about 3% of production.
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