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Likelihood of a large sea level rise by 2100
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 01, 2016 2:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

biffvernon wrote:
emordnilap wrote:
Can someone provide a link to reliable data showing sea level rises over the past few decades, please?


Just shy of 3mm per year on average.
Not all places are average.


I read somewhere that because of gravitational effects the East Coast of the US is especially prone to higher water levels. Not sure what that's about. Biff?

Apparently the slowing of the Gulf Stream has caused a backing up of ocean water along the East Coast of the US as well. Tough on them, especially as Washington doesn't believe in AGW.
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Fri Apr 01, 2016 9:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
biffvernon wrote:
emordnilap wrote:
Can someone provide a link to reliable data showing sea level rises over the past few decades, please?


Just shy of 3mm per year on average.
Not all places are average.


I read somewhere that because of gravitational effects the East Coast of the US is especially prone to higher water levels. Not sure what that's about. Biff?

Apparently the slowing of the Gulf Stream has caused a backing up of ocean water along the East Coast of the US as well. Tough on them, especially as Washington doesn't believe in AGW.


What's the best source for the 3mm stat? And, is this 'average' increasing?
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Fri Apr 01, 2016 11:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

emordnilap wrote:

What's the best source for the 3mm stat? And, is this 'average' increasing?


Yes, the 'average' is increasing.

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.html

https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/oceans/sea-level.html

http://sealevel.colorado.edu/


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 01, 2016 12:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

From that second link:

Quote:
After a period of approximately 2,000 years of little change (not shown here), global average sea level rose throughout the 20th century, and the rate of change has accelerated in recent years.

When averaged over all the worlds oceans, absolute sea level increased at an average rate of 0.06 inches [1.524mm] per year from 1880 to 2013.

Since 1993, however, average sea level has risen at a rate of 0.11 [2.794mm] to 0.14 inches [3.556mm] per yearroughly twice as fast as the long-term trend.


Interesting. And, on average, ocean floors are sinking (tectonic plate movement? it's said that the Himalayans are getting about 60mm higher every year).
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Wed Apr 13, 2016 7:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Holthaus on Hansen:
http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2016/04/james_hansen_is_less_radical_than_you_think.html
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 14, 2016 2:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hanson has, all through his career in climate science, seen that each successive wave of climate science has shown the previous wave to be too conservative. Why should he not then be worried enough to get out there and tell politicians that they are not doing enough to mitigate the massive problem.

It's no surprise that the press has a go at him because the press is owned by people with a huge financial interest in the status quo. They want him done down so that they can carry on making money at the expense of our children's future.

He deserves all the support that we can give him and let's just hope that this state judgement doesn't get done done in a Federal court. This type of judgement is the reason that the Republicans won't ratify Obama's choice of a Supreme Court judge. They are frightened that a "left wing" judge might side with the claiments.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 14, 2016 8:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

No, it's not the press that's having a go at him, it's the scientific community.

Did you read this on Hansen et al.?
http://icarus-maynooth.blogspot.co.uk/2016/03/on-hansen-et-al.html
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Thu Apr 14, 2016 3:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And he's wrong on nuclear. Wink
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Sat May 21, 2016 5:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The East Antarctic ice sheet this time. An added source of sea level rise over the next 500 years with possibly a metre by the end of the century.
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