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Life after COVID19 has faded.
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Catweazle



Joined: 17 Feb 2008
Posts: 2500
Location: Little England, over the hills

PostPosted: Fri May 29, 2020 11:06 am    Post subject: Life after COVID19 has faded. Reply with quote

I guess there will be some changes, but how severe ?

Will there be the major re-distribution of wealth some predict ? Or the revolution that others crave ?

Perhaps we can expect to drift back to a BAU model, albeit at a slightly lower living standard. Or, will the death of the zombie companies and a desire to work in a healthier environment create an explosion of small companies catering for UK markets ?

Will we be encouraged to buy local, to reduce our reliance on imports ? If so, what will our trading partners think of this ?

Is a huge infra-structure building effort coming ? This will provide employment and kickstart the UK economy, but can it last ? Do we really need HS2 and more motorways in a slowed world economy ?

How is the tax system going to gather enough to pay for the building on top of the already huge debt repayments ?

In fact, how are we going to pay the debts we have already incurred ?

How are we going to stop someone mentioning geology in this thread ?

So many questions, I haven't a clue how this is going to work out.
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stumuz1



Joined: 07 Jun 2016
Posts: 814
Location: Anglesey

PostPosted: Fri May 29, 2020 12:14 pm    Post subject: Re: Life after COVID19 has faded. Reply with quote

Catweazle wrote:
I guess there will be some changes, but how severe ?

Will there be the major re-distribution of wealth some predict ? Or the revolution that others crave ?



Yes redistribution. All wars, strife, and pandemics have resulted in wealth distribution. Paradoxically peace and stability always leads to greater inequality in wealth, as per Marx.

Catweazle wrote:

Perhaps we can expect to drift back to a BAU model, albeit at a slightly lower living standard. Or, will the death of the zombie companies and a desire to work in a healthier environment create an explosion of small companies catering for UK markets ?



We will not go back to BAU for a long time, would you go back to one of the cozy restaurants where you get cramp on tiny seats, sitting cheeky jowl with your fellow diners?

Also, more people are seeing their homes as more than places to get your head down. They have become offices, food production places, etc. A lot pf properties (city centre flats) will go down in demand, whilst well proportioned housed with gardens will become more in demand.

Catweazle wrote:

Will we be encouraged to buy local, to reduce our reliance on imports ? If so, what will our trading partners think of this ?


Yes to local, tough titty on the trading partners.

Catweazle wrote:

Is a huge infra-structure building effort coming ? This will provide employment and kickstart the UK economy, but can it last ? Do we really need HS2 and more motorways in a slowed world economy ?


Yes to HS2, need the capacity, west coast mainline is full, and its a stop start line. so limited to any form of extra capacity. If HS2 was renamed cross rail there would not be a debate.

Catweazle wrote:

How is the tax system going to gather enough to pay for the building on top of the already huge debt repayments ?


Print it out of thin air. Where else is capital going to go?
Catweazle wrote:

In fact, how are we going to pay the debts we have already incurred ?


Print and inflate, like we've always done.
Catweazle wrote:
How are we going to stop someone mentioning geology in this thread ?


He is a deeply unhappy man who seems to have lost his way in life, bit sad really. Best just to patronise him.

Catweazle wrote:
So many questions, I haven't a clue how this is going to work out.


Neither does anyone else,
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
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Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Fri May 29, 2020 3:35 pm    Post subject: Re: Life after COVID19 has faded. Reply with quote

stumuz1 wrote:
Catweazle wrote:
I guess there will be some changes, but how severe ?

Will there be the major re-distribution of wealth some predict ? Or the revolution that others crave ?



Yes redistribution. All wars, strife, and pandemics have resulted in wealth distribution. Paradoxically peace and stability always leads to greater inequality in wealth, as per Marx.


The severity of the changes will depend on the depth of the recession and the depth of change that we can wring out of our politicians. If you want change get lobbying your MP now and tell them what you would like to see.

If you don't lobby them all they will hear is what big business and their friends in the civil service are telling them and that is probably not what you would be telling them. Now is the time for major grass roots lobbying.


Quote:
Quote:
[quote="Catweazle"]
Perhaps we can expect to drift back to a BAU model, albeit at a slightly lower living standard. Or, will the death of the zombie companies and a desire to work in a healthier environment create an explosion of small companies catering for UK markets ?



We will not go back to BAU for a long time, would you go back to one of the cozy restaurants where you get cramp on tiny seats, sitting cheeky jowl with your fellow diners?

Also, more people are seeing their homes as more than places to get your head down. They have become offices, food production places, etc. A lot pf properties (city centre flats) will go down in demand, whilst well proportioned housed with gardens will become more in demand.


Yes. Why live in a flat in the city when you can work from home most of the time and go into the office once or twice a week, probably in an off peak train with a seat all the way?

That would promote a drain from inner city living but put pressure on house prices around the cities. The trouble is people are already commuting from places two hours travel away so although inner city flats might loose their value commuterland houses are going to increase in cost, rather than value.

Covid could have quite an influence on inner city building as much of the flat building is at the luxury end of the market and aimed at rich oversees investment buyers who never live in them. If values start dropping that investment market will plummet and probably end with some of the developers going bust. I, for one, won't be sad to see that.

Quote:
Quote:
[quote="Catweazle"]
Will we be encouraged to buy local, to reduce our reliance on imports ? If so, what will our trading partners think of this ?


Yes to local, tough titty on the trading partners.


Encouragement to buy local has never really worked to any great extent before: anyone remember the "Buy British" campaign? We would have to have some stuff to buy locally before a campaign like that could work. Innovators of great British products like Dyson would have to bring their production back home first and then we would need tariffs on cheap overseas products to counter our inflated land costs.

The cost of land in this country is a direct cost penalty on everything we do or produce. It impacts on our cost of living through inflated food prices and then there is obviously the rent and mortgage costs. It impacts on production through higher wages necessary to pay rent and then, of course, through business rental cost.

The cost of land is also influenced by our population density. If we keep increasing our population to keep growth going we will keep increasing the cost of land as we will have to keep on building more houses to house all the migrants, unless we go back to Victorian standards of housing with one family per room!

Tariffs would be necessary to make up for our inflated land cost and most are illegal at the moment under WTO rules. Most of the trade agreements which we are negotiating are to get what tariffs there are removed and they are bilateral agreements to remove tariffs both ways. There would need to be a lot of change here going forward.

Quote:
Quote:
[quote="Catweazle"]
Is a huge infra-structure building effort coming ? This will provide employment and kickstart the UK economy, but can it last ? Do we really need HS2 and more motorways in a slowed world economy ?


Yes to HS2, need the capacity, west coast mainline is full, and its a stop start line. so limited to any form of extra capacity. If HS2 was renamed cross rail there would not be a debate.


One infrastructure effort that would do an awful lot of good and employ a lot of people would be a National House Insulation Scheme to insulate all our houses to save the 80% required by the Climate Change Act.

Quote:
Quote:
[quote="Catweazle"]
How is the tax system going to gather enough to pay for the building on top of the already huge debt repayments ?


Print it out of thin air. Where else is capital going to go?


People go on and on about government printing money being inflationary but all money is printed out of thin air any way. The difference is that at the moment banks do the printing with very little to restrain them and they make a huge unearned profit from doing so. We saw during the 2008 crash that there is very little risk involved for the banks as government bailed them and their ineptitude out and passed the cost onto, not the shareholders, but to the general public.

So why should the government borrow money which we the taxpayer then has to pay interest on to bankers who have conjured it up out of thin air when the government could just as easily conjure it up out of thin air itself. It's not the banks money it is the government's money so why should they pay banks for the use of it? The public has been conned over the years into believing that banks do a job for us while the actually do a job on us!

Quote:
[quote="Catweazle"]
In fact, how are we going to pay the debts we have already incurred ?


Print and inflate, like we've always done.
Quote:
Catweazle wrote:
How are we going to stop someone mentioning geology in this thread ?


He is a deeply unhappy man who seems to have lost his way in life, bit sad really. Best just to patronise him.


He seems to be wedded to Peak Oil more than the rest of us are as it is usually him who brings it up. Someone basking in past glories does make one wonder if that person has anything worthwhile to do now.

Quote:
Quote:
Catweazle wrote:
So many questions, I haven't a clue how this is going to work out.


Neither does anyone else,


Very true but do try to influence things by telling your MP what you think should be done and please lobby for a National Home Insulation Scheme paid for with that not to be dreaded, Printe Money.
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stumuz1



Joined: 07 Jun 2016
Posts: 814
Location: Anglesey

PostPosted: Fri May 29, 2020 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As usual Ken. The core of good sense.
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adam2
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Joined: 02 Jul 2007
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PostPosted: Fri May 29, 2020 4:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I suspect that long term changes will be relatively minor, "the system" has considerable inertia that favours BAU.
I expect many relatively minor changes, including,

More use of delivery services rather than shopping in person, this was underway before the virus.
Less eating out, esp. in restaurants considered crowded.
Less use of public houses, with many closing. This was underway before the virus.
A modest increase in working from home, but still a small proportion of the workforce.
A bit more cycling and walking, but this change also was underway before the virus.
More use of automation and robotics in manufacturing industry and distribution.
A little less reliance on just in time logistics, but only a modest change.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 6307
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Fri May 29, 2020 4:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
I suspect that long term changes will be relatively minor, "the system" has considerable inertia that favours BAU.
I expect many relatively minor changes, including,

More use of delivery services rather than shopping in person, this was underway before the virus.
Less eating out, esp. in restaurants considered crowded.
Less use of public houses, with many closing. This was underway before the virus.
A modest increase in working from home, but still a small proportion of the workforce.
A bit more cycling and walking, but this change also was underway before the virus.
More use of automation and robotics in manufacturing industry and distribution.
A little less reliance on just in time logistics, but only a modest change.

Perhaps but I think you are underestimating the magnitude of the change both in logistics and peoples thinking. I would multiply all of your projections by at least two.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Fri May 29, 2020 4:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

One specific change that I expect is greater use of ultraviolet lamps to sterilise surfaces and air.

The light from such lamps is dangerous to skin and eyes but may be safely applied in several ways.

A lot depends on public opinion, "mumsnet" and similar groups.
Will the technology be regarded as vital for the safety of children ? or as a new way of "irradiating children"

Applied sensibly, germicidal lamps are very useful, but they are not a cure all, and require proper installation, and regular replacement of the lamps.
Use is well established in food factories and pharmaceutical works.

I have installed many of these.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Fri May 29, 2020 4:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have moved from this thread an unrelated post about the rioting in America, following the death of a suspect in the hands of the police.

The moved post may be found in the "off topic" forum and comments may be added.
The connection to the coronavirus seems very tenuous.

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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Fri May 29, 2020 4:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
I have moved from this thread an unrelated post about the rioting in America, following the death of a suspect in the hands of the police.

The moved post may be found in the "off topic" forum and comments may be added.
The connection to the coronavirus seems very tenuous.

OK moved to off topic.
I do believe the riots happening across the USA are sparked partly by the tensions created by putting forty million people out of work.
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emordnilap



Joined: 05 Sep 2007
Posts: 14596
Location: Houǝsʇlʎ' ᴉʇ,s ɹǝɐllʎ uoʇ ʍoɹʇɥ ʇɥǝ ǝɟɟoɹʇ' pou,ʇ ǝʌǝu qoʇɥǝɹ˙

PostPosted: Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
I suspect that long term changes will be relatively minor, "the system" has considerable inertia that favours BAU.
I expect many relatively minor changes, including,

More use of delivery services rather than shopping in person, this was underway before the virus.
Less eating out, esp. in restaurants considered crowded.
Less use of public houses, with many closing. This was underway before the virus.
A modest increase in working from home, but still a small proportion of the workforce.
A bit more cycling and walking, but this change also was underway before the virus.
More use of automation and robotics in manufacturing industry and distribution.
A little less reliance on just in time logistics, but only a modest change.


That sums it all up. A virus is hardly going to turn people into redistributionist environmentalists. I would have thought the opposite, if anything.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 11045
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:25 am    Post subject: Re: Life after COVID19 has faded. Reply with quote

Catweazle wrote:

In fact, how are we going to pay the debts we have already incurred ?


That may turn out to be the deciding issue at the 2024 general election (which will be held in May/June, not December). If the tories try to make sure the rich don't pay for most of it, then they may well lose quite badly.

What will Starmer offer to the electorate? He could go either of two ways -- try to steady the ship and guide a path back to something resembling BAU but a bit less unequal -- or something considerably more radical though carefully calculated to deliver victory.
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Catweazle



Joined: 17 Feb 2008
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Location: Little England, over the hills

PostPosted: Sun Jun 07, 2020 11:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

An interesting article on cancelling debt, a Jubilee.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/cancel-all-debt-or-we-will-be-slaves-to-banks-darius-guppy-tells-his-old-oxford-pal-boris-johnson/ar-BB158rEV?ocid=spartandhp
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Sun Jun 07, 2020 9:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Catweazle wrote:
An interesting article on cancelling debt, a Jubilee.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/cancel-all-debt-or-we-will-be-slaves-to-banks-darius-guppy-tells-his-old-oxford-pal-boris-johnson/ar-BB158rEV?ocid=spartandhp
I choose not to go past their cookies requirements so have not read it.
My question would be how you would reconcile a mortgage holder on a house or other property with attached debt that had just taken on that burden compared to his neighbor that was in the last years of his mortgage.
Of course what happens to all the banks and others that lent the money out in the first place. What justification is there for robbing them of the contracted repayments plus interest. If it wasn't a fair deal to begin with the lender should not have chosen to take on the debt to have and use the property. The fact they took the deal says they thought it was worth it.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 18, 2020 5:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I received a small paycheck from the town for filling in one day as attendant at the transfer station. I spent it on a 100 watt solar panel and controller. I'm going to mount it on the roof of my shooting shack/ Man cave to power the lights and the electric fences I put around my gardens and food plots.
My first investment in solar so will see how it goes. It should arrive UPS early next week.
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Catweazle



Joined: 17 Feb 2008
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Location: Little England, over the hills

PostPosted: Tue Jun 23, 2020 10:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've made plans to do much more work from home in future. I'm lucky to have substantial workshops here, so it will be a more solitary working week for me from now on.

I'll miss the social side of working with others, but I won't miss the travelling, and a more flexible working day will allow me to get more small jobs done around the smallholding.
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