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Trump, Sanders, Leicester City FC...
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 8638
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:04 am    Post subject: Trump, Sanders, Leicester City FC... Reply with quote

The world turned upside down?

For those of you who don't follow British football, something extra-ordinary appear to be happening. This time last year Leicester City were bottom of the Premier League, but had a resurgence at the end to escape relegation. At the start of the current football season in August they were the bookies favourites to finish bottom, with odds of 5000-1 to finish top - the same odds as the Loch Ness Monster being discovered. Last Saturday they beat the favourites - mega-rich Manchester City - to go 5 points clear at the top, and for the first time the centre of gravity of football punditry finally swapped "it's still impossible" for "oh my God, I think Leicester are actually going to win the Premier League."

Last night Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders both won the primaries in New Hampshire. Leicester City both of them. And the political pundits are having to admit the same thing - we may well be looking at Trump vs Sanders for President. An economic socialist against an economic right wing lunatic (both of them are nationalists, so "right wing" in that sense doesn't apply).

http://www.forbes.com/sites/anthonynitti/2016/02/07/what-would-be-at-stake-in-a-trump-v-sanders-election-how-about-24-trillion-in-tax-revenue/#1be1fcc44cd4

Quote:

This would be no Bush v. Clinton election, with voters left trying to decide between dynastic, life-long politicians with deeply ingrained corporate and financial ties. No, Sanders v. Trump would represent as large a chasm between ideologies since, wellever. After all, Sanders is as likely to turn Camp David into a makeshift homeless shelter as Trump is to nuke Canada back to the Stone Age because Drake dissed him on his latest track.

And while their social agendas are incongruent, to say the least, in no area is the dichotomy between the two men as startling as their tax proposals. To wit: based on the most up-to-date plans posited by each candidate, all that would be at stake over the next ten years in a Sanders v. Trump election is a budgetary swing equal to the GDP of China. Plus Japan. Plus the UK, France, Germany and Italy. Thats $26 trillion to be exact.


Quote:

Should the presidential race come down to Sanders v. Trump, the election will serve as a referendum on our divided nation: Sanders representing the anti-establishment, modern-day Robin Hood, with Trump serving as the born-with-a-silver-spoon, protect-the-rich 1-percenter. While this may reduce the candidates to mere caricatures, there is support in these stereotypes in their tax plans. Sanders proposals would increase the tax burden on the richest 1% by 25%, while Trump will leave the same wealthy taxpayers with an additional 27% of after-tax cash.

Thats a 52% swing in a tax bill for the top 1% of taxpayers; and while that may make their decision an easy one, they are, after all, only 1% of the country. The other 99% will have a harder choice to make, and as this column hopefully illustrated, a very meaningful choice at that. And regardless of who would emerge victorious, ten years from now this country will likely be unrecognizable from where it stands today.


Go Leicester City! Very Happy
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 11:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So it's Trump then. Crying or Very sad
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PS_RalphW



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 3:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What are Sander's policies? He is called a socialist (as a term of abuse) in the US MSM, but I don't believe that.

His sound bites are encouraging but they have the usual politician's get out clause wordings. In the unlikely event of his election what is the chance of his changing anything real when the senate, congress, and supreme court will all be ranged against any real change?
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 5:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PS_RalphW wrote:
What are Sander's policies? He is called a socialist (as a term of abuse) in the US MSM, but I don't believe that.

His sound bites are encouraging but they have the usual politician's get out clause wordings. In the unlikely event of his election what is the chance of his changing anything real when the senate, congress, and supreme court will all be ranged against any real change?
He is part of a process of political goalpost shifting. As a part of that process, he may manage to make some changes of his own, or he may simply be no more than a stepping stone to wherever those goalpost move to after him. If you are suggesting that the American people should not vote for him, who do you suggest they vote for?

Last edited by Little John on Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:06 pm; edited 1 time in total
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 5:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PS_RalphW wrote:
What are Sander's policies? He is called a socialist (as a term of abuse) in the US MSM, but I don't believe that.


Read the article. His policy would involve a huge equalisation of the wealth gap in the US, and breaking up the big banks. He's for real. He's the Corbyn of US politics. The American establishment is absolutely terrified of him.

Quote:

In the unlikely event of his election what is the chance of his changing anything real when the senate, congress, and supreme court will all be ranged against any real change?


I don't know enough about the mechanics of US politics to answer that.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The president really isn't THAT powerful. If ever Trump or Sanders were to win there are pretty close limits to how much can change in a term. Little John's point about goalpost shifting sounds right to me... but of when campaigning you have to promise monumental 'change'.

Presidential elections tend to be pretty close and turnout is only around 60%. The 'new dynamic' here is that turnout could increase significantly this time with both Trump and Sanders appealing to (different) groups with historically low turnout. ...anything could happen.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PS_RalphW wrote:
What are Sander's policies? He is called a socialist (as a term of abuse) in the US MSM, but I don't believe that.


He describes himself as a socialist. Given that it is indeed normally a term of abuse, that probably tells you enough about him to know he's for real. He's also the first Jew in American history to win a primary. By the standards of US politics, his success is even more surprising than Trump's.
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2016 11:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
The president really isn't THAT powerful.

That's key. People universally exaggerate the power of the presidency and then blame the man when he does not succeed. Witness Obama.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Thu Feb 11, 2016 12:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

He has the power to completely change the narrative of US politics. Even if he has serious difficulties implemented radical changes to laws, a self-proclaimed anti-corporation, anti-bank anti-inequality "socialist" could radically change the political landscape of the United States. You can't just silence the President. You cannot dismiss what he says as an irrelevant fantasy, because he is the democratically elected leader of the government.

In other words, it will force those elements of US society who try to equate "socialism" with "unelectable joke" to change their tune. We have seen this happen in the British Labour party. Many of those who nominated Corbyn did so precisely because they wanted to demonstrate that he was an unelectable joke. They aren't laughing anymore.
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Thu Feb 11, 2016 11:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I asked an American friend if the president had any real power and his (brief) answer was a qualified yes. He mentioned executive orders, for instance and Clinton's final evisceration of financial restrictions following successive presidential waterings-down of the Glass-Steagal act. And it's not so much the president as who his handlers are - witness that oaf GWB, who was frequently and obviously manipulated by short-sighted warmongers.

So yes, there are constraints upon a president's power but, as UE and LJ say, they can shift the frame, sometimes significantly.
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Mark



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PostPosted: Thu Feb 11, 2016 11:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The big power that the US President has, is to press the button.....
For that reason alone, I've been happy with Obama, as he's basically been a peace maker
I'd be afraid if the US go for a loose canon like Trump...
Especially with what's brewing in many places, including North Korea....
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Blue Peter



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PostPosted: Thu Feb 11, 2016 11:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

emordnilap wrote:
And it's not so much the president as who his handlers are - witness that oaf GWB, who was frequently and obviously manipulated by short-sighted warmongers.

But Obama has waged at least as many campaigns as GWB (Irag, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria), and Obama is no oaf.


Also, there is considerable conflict within various parts of the US government with different parts working to different, contradictory agendas. E.g. Hersh,


Peter.
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Thu Feb 11, 2016 11:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Blue Peter wrote:
emordnilap wrote:
And it's not so much the president as who his handlers are - witness that oaf GWB, who was frequently and obviously manipulated by short-sighted warmongers.

But Obama has waged at least as many campaigns as GWB (Irag, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria), and Obama is no oaf.


One could argue that it was Bush's idiotic foray into Iraq that led to Obama's actions. Of course, it goes back before that...but Iraq was the supreme stupidity.
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting.

My reading is that Trump brand of economic populism will become increasingly anti-Wall Street and big business as he starts to seriously start courting Democratic voters.

I also think that Trump, nasty man as he is, is far more likely to reshape and challenge the power of the Washington political and economic establishment than the weak Sanders. Why?

Because Trump has the ruthlessness to take on the establishment and the backing of a seriously angry pitchfork crowd of right-wing militias behind him - Trump if he wanted to, could unleash a mass movement of armed, right-wing and pissed of voters onto Washington to literally intimidate Congress into voting in anti-Wall Street measures. I just can't see Sanders taking such a risk.

Trump as president will be prepared to use any means to take on the banks and the Washington elite - he is a total bastard and knows what he is dealing with e.g. total bastards.
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2016 9:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For me, a vote for Trump is the only realistic way of challenging the free trade, status quo system, because a Republican with a mandate from the public to change the system is far more likely to succeed than a weak and very nice socialist grandad.
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