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France watch...
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4102
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Tue Apr 04, 2017 8:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/04/undecided-voters-abstentions-could-swing-french-presidential/

Quote:
While the polls may just be reflecting what will be a higher than average abstention rate in France, it may also benefit the National Fronts Marine Le Pen.

In contrast to the supporters of Macron, polls show that those who say they will vote for Le Pen are most certain of their vote. This means that levels high of uncertainty and apathy could benefit the far-right leader.

There are lessons to be learned from the US election. A University of Pennsylvania study after the US election found that there was a late swing towards Trump among undecided voters in the late stage of the campaign - with more voters deciding to support Trump in the final weeks than support Clinton.


The fact that so many are planning not to vote rather than vote against the National Front is a sign that the traditional Republican Front is collapsing.

Assumptions of a MLP defeat are based on a premise that appears no longer valid.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/05/france-now-eurosceptic-nation-whoever-wins-election/

Quote:
The French people are just as eurosceptic as the British. In this we are twins.

The piercing feature of last night's presidential debate was the patriotic 'fronde', a total rejection of the European Union in its current form by a string of candidates ranging from hard-Left through the centre to the hard-Right.

The dying Socialist Party can no longer hold on to its working-class base with implausible pledges for a better 'Europe'. Voters are defecting to ex-Trotskyist Jean-Luc Mlenchon - leader of the aptly named 'France Insoumise' (Unsubjugated France) - who calls the EU an "open-air prison".


Great article by Ambrose.

This was the key thing for me, along with the broad skepticism towards free trade, from the latest election debate.

The liberal and pro-European consensus is crumbling across France and populism is on the rise.
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Populism. Telling people what they like even if it isn't true.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anti-populist propaganda - attempting to convince people that what they experience in their own lives and what they know in their guts to be true, is not true.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 7:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/05/postcard-hayange-fury-frances-eastern-rust-belt-drives-workers/

Quote:
With around 40 per cent of the electorate still unsure about who deserves their vote, Ms Le Pen's chances of victory nationwide hinge on how this dilemma plays out.


Reading this and many other articles, the most significant factor is the huge number of undecided voters.

How they swing (or who bothers to vote or not) will be key.

I therefore struggle to understand why the so-called pundits and experts are saying that Le Pen can't win.

She might or she might not.
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jonny2mad



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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Location: weston super mare

PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/301176,EU-to-give-Poland-and-Hungary-ultimatum-to-accept-migrants-report

off the subject of france but interesting the EU may give Poland and Hungary a ultimatum take in syrians 160,000 of them to start with or leave the EU.

This would be incredibly unpopular in both countrys, Hungary has built two large fences to keep out the people the EU wants them to take in.

They may do it because they like the EU but on the otherhand either country could leave over it

I think a large part of the reason people voted to leave in Brexit was concern about immigration into europe .

A lot of people can see we have a Muslim problem in the uk and they didnt want to make it worse . I think the rise of anti EU partys across Europe has to do with angela merkel pushing for open borders and then things like calais and sex attacks in germany
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 8:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My latest blog post on the French elections as the 1st round looms...

https://forecastingintelligence.org/2017/04/11/expect-the-unexpected/
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 10:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
My latest blog post on the French elections as the 1st round looms...

https://forecastingintelligence.org/2017/04/11/expect-the-unexpected/


Mlenchon has some really attractive policies, even though many wouldn't make it to fruition even if he was elected.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 10:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

He is certainly an interesting guy.

http://www.ianwelsh.net/quick-hit-france-is-just-a-giant-greece/

A different take on the hard left candidate.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 7:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://mishtalk.com/2017/04/15/still-more-tightening-in-french-polls/

It's getting too close to call in the 1st round of the French elections... either of the top 4 candidates have a good chance of getting through.

Personally, I have no idea what will happen.

Anybody prepared to stick their neck out and make some predictions?
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Little John



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PostPosted: Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I no longer believe polls
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 3:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
hard-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon would give citizenship and the Legion of Honor France's highest order of merit to Assange and fellow whistle-blower Edward Snowden if elected


Another reason to support Melenchon.

Source
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 9:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://forecastingintelligence.org/2017/04/20/fi-special-the-british-general-election-and-a-1st-round-french-presidential-election-forecast/

My very tentative forecast on the 1st round of the French elections.
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cubes



Joined: 10 Jun 2008
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Location: Norfolk

PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another incident in Paris http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39662315

How will that effect the vote?
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adam2
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Joined: 02 Jul 2007
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Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In the last hour or two, a presumed islamist attacker has opened fire on a bus carrying police officers in central Paris.
One policeman killed and two injured before the attacker was shot dead.

I would expect this attack to increase support for Marine Le Pen.

Please be aware that this is a very early report and may later be found inaccurate.
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