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2017 predictions
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 8640
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Sat Dec 24, 2016 8:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming2 wrote:
I think Trump basically is not that bothered about the rule of law or any principles beyond the principle of self-interest.


I don't believe that. I think he does respect the rule of law. And I think he even has some principles. What I don't think he has is anything resembling a coherent strategy, or even much of an awareness of why a coherent strategy is required. He seems to be making a lot of it up as he goes along, which is likely to end badly.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Sat Dec 24, 2016 9:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trump is developing his strategy and a network of allies who share his Trumpian vision on trade, economics and foreign policy.

Don't make the mistake of so many and under-estimate the man. He didn't think he would win the election so there is an element of catch-up going now.
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 25, 2016 12:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
johnhemming2 wrote:
I think Trump basically is not that bothered about the rule of law or any principles beyond the principle of self-interest.


I don't believe that. I think he does respect the rule of law. And I think he even has some principles. What I don't think he has is anything resembling a coherent strategy, or even much of an awareness of why a coherent strategy is required. He seems to be making a lot of it up as he goes along, which is likely to end badly.


trump didn't have any respect for environmental laws and for the rights of the people who lived next to the site of special scientific interest that he trashed in Scotland for his golf course.

You need to look around and not believe what trump says, which is often far from the truth.
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Sun Dec 25, 2016 10:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The test on rule of law is when he wants to do something that conflicts with the rule of law, but is in his self-interest (which is to a limited extent linked with the citizens of the USA).
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 4282
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Sun Dec 25, 2016 2:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:

Don't make the mistake of so many and under-estimate the man. He didn't think he would win the election so there is an element of catch-up going now.

Yes I think ,Hope actually, that many people are underestimating him based on the speeches and statements he made to get elected. The coarse and simple minded language may well have been deliberate dumbing down of the rhetoric to garner votes from the less educated members of the electorate.
Hopefully that was a response to the lessons learned by Adlai Stevenson back in the 50's.
Quote:
A popular story is told about Adlai Stevenson (1900-1965) when he was running for president in 1952 (or in 1956). Someone heard Stevensons impressive speech and said, Every thinking person in America will be voting for you. Stevenson replied, Im afraid that wont doI need a majority.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 26, 2016 2:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trump is defined to me by the way that he treated the neighbours of his Scottish golf course when they didn't give him what he wanted. He is an over grown, nasty, spoilt brat who stamps his feet or throws his rattle out of the pram when he is crossed. Very dangerous, indeed!
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
Posts: 1453

PostPosted: Mon Jan 02, 2017 3:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A couple of interesting commentaries on what to expect in 2017:

Jim Kunstler: 2017: The Wheels Finally Come Off

Chris Martenson: As we enter 2017 Keep the Big Picture in Mind

FWIW here are some of my 2017 predictions:
Attempts to block Donald Trump becoming President to continue up to Inauguration Day, 20th January. Impeachment attempts and or assassination attempts will follow.

In the UK, house price "softening" in London will become more acute and this will translate into the South East housing market. This will be the prelude to a more severe market "correction"

France and Netherlands to elect Eurosceptic leaders - quite probably in Italy as well.
A European Banking crisis unfolds probably in the second half of the year that takes down many major institutions. This will highlights the faultlines within the European Central Bank leading to a loss of faith in the Euro itself

In Syria the Syrian Arab Army will wrestle back control of more territory - this will be punctuated with numerous failed ceasefire agreements.

Turkey's economy to deteriorate further - there may well be another coup/assassination attempt on Erdogan.

The Yemen conflict will continue to be a thorn in the side of KSA in particular and a drain on resources. Civilian casualties will continue to rise in this genocidal conflict.

A major terrorist/false flag incident - quite possibly in the Middle East on an oil terminal - which will be blamed, without any credible evidence - on Iran/North Korea/China* This will trigger a major Stock Market crash - oil prices sky rocket then plummet.

The planet will continue to get hotter and set more unwanted records.

Happy 2017 everyone!

*delete as applicable
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 12:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I read through Jim Kunstler's article. Will see waht happens. I suspect not all of it will come to pass.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://forecastingintelligence.org/

I have just completed my review of 2016 predictions, 2017 to follow this weekend!
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
Posts: 595
Location: The Marches, UK

PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

2017 will be a year of zoonotic disease mutation, with little coverage. I guess in 2019 it will be harder to ignore.
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
https://forecastingintelligence.org/

I have just completed my review of 2016 predictions, 2017 to follow this weekend!


From the link:

Quote:
The first two predictions related to the US presidential election and I scored trump cards on both of them (pardon the expression), successfully predicting both the election of Trump as Republican candidate as well as his eventual victory against Hilary Clinton on election night.


You might be able to claim the first, but the election to president was merely because of a quirk in the undemocratic electoral college system. Fewer people voted for trump than voted for Clinton.
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boisdevie



Joined: 26 Dec 2012
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:

You might be able to claim the first, but the election to president was merely because of a quirk in the undemocratic electoral college system. Fewer people voted for trump than voted for Clinton.


But I wonder how many Trump supporters in California didn't vote because they knew that with the Electoral College system their votes would be wasted?
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We can only deal with what is, not what might have been. The same could be said for Clinton voters in the rust belt, and any place the violent tendency of the trump following sheeple operated.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 7:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Woodburner - I would concur with you that the electoral college is a very odd thing but it is how US presidential elections are won or lost. The popular vote is a nice to have compared to the electoral college - Trump swept the electoral college and that is why he is being inaugurated within a couple of weeks. I called it right.
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No more than luck.
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