PowerSwitch Main Page
PowerSwitch
The UK's Peak Oil Discussion Forum & Community
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

2017 predictions
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    PowerSwitch Forum Index -> General Discussion
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 4282
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If I was going to modify the electoral college at all it would be to make each congressional district a separate race and vote leaving the two senate votes from each state at large. That would not make any difference in Vermont or North Dakota.( three votes blue three votes red) but in the larger states you could get splits with the cities voting one way and rural districts voting the other. That would certainly change the way campaigning was done and make the 2020 redistricting process very interesting.
Imagine a Republican in California have a chance to have his vote stand for something or a Democrat in Texas for that matter.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4104
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:
No more than luck.


You are welcome to try yourself! We can compare our results at the end of 2017. Ready for the challenge?
_________________
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
boisdevie



Joined: 26 Dec 2012
Posts: 213
Location: N Lancashire

PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:
No more than luck.


Want some lube for that butthurt?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4104
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For some reason I can hear chickens squaking in the distance. Wonder why?
_________________
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4104
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Thu Jan 05, 2017 10:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://phys.org/news/2017-01-social-instability-lies.html

Quote:
My research showed that about 40 seemingly disparate (but, according to cliodynamics, related) social indicators experienced turning points during the 1970s. Historically, such developments have served as leading indicators of political turmoil. My model indicated that social instability and political violence would peak in the 2020s (see Political Instability May be a Contributor in the Coming Decade).

The presidential election which we have experienced, unfortunately, confirms this forecast. We seem to be well on track for the 2020s instability peak. And although the election is over, the deep structural forces that brought us the current political crisis have not gone away. If anything, the negative trends seem to be accelerating.


Fascinating article. Worth reading in full.
_________________
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
Posts: 1453

PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tim Morgan: Looking Ahead: A Chastening for the Global Economy

Tim Morgan wrote:
Altogether, what we are witnessing is a Ponzi-style financial economy heading for end-game, for four main reasons.

First, we have made growth dependent on borrowing, which was never a sustainable model.

Second, the ratio of efficiency with which we turn borrowing into growth is getting steadily worse.

Third, the demands being made on us by the deterioration of the resource scarcity equation are worsening.

Fourth, the ageing of the population is adding further strains to a system that is already nearing over-stretch.

One thing seems certain – we cannot, for much longer, carry on as we are.

_________________
A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools - Douglas Adams.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
Posts: 3384

PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

From Tim Morgan's article:
Quote:
Someone does not become more prosperous by increasing his or her overdraft and then spending it...............


trump does, or tries to give the impression he is becoming richer.
_________________
If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while you count your money.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4104
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://forecastingintelligence.org/2017/01/08/my-predictions-for-2017/

My full predictions for 2017 - enjoy!
_________________
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 5667
Location: UK

PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 1:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I broadly agree with those. I also read your article entitled "Winter is coming" and, of course, most of us on here would agree with that
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Yahoo Messenger
adam2
Site Admin


Joined: 02 Jul 2007
Posts: 6220
Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 12:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another jolly prediction
"2017 will be the year in which a major western bank fails, not for the usual reasons, but due to hackers/cyber criminals stealing so much of the banks money that it fails"

Not an original thought of mine, I read it elsewhere, but a distinct possibility IMHO.
_________________
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
clv101
Site Admin


Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 7636

PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 8:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:
You might be able to claim the first, but the election to president was merely because of a quirk in the undemocratic electoral college system. Fewer people voted for trump than voted for Clinton.

This is a poor argument. The popular vote is distorted by 'safe states'. We have no idea how many would-be Trump voters in California for example didn't bother to vote as they knew their vote would be irrelevant - likewise would-be Clinton supporters in Texas.

IF the election were based on the popular vote, the popular vote would be different!
_________________
PowerSwitch on Facebook | The Oil Drum | Twitter | Blog
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
Posts: 3384

PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 11:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
woodburner wrote:
You might be able to claim the first, but the election to president was merely because of a quirk in the undemocratic electoral college system. Fewer people voted for trump than voted for Clinton.

This is a poor argument. The popular vote is distorted by 'safe states'. We have no idea how many would-be Trump voters in California for example didn't bother to vote as they knew their vote would be irrelevant - likewise would-be Clinton supporters in Texas.

IF the election were based on the popular vote, the popular vote would be different!


And your argument isn't much better.
_________________
If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while you count your money.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
clv101
Site Admin


Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 7636

PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 11:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My argument is that you can't go bounding around the popular vote number as if it means anything. It doesn't. Turnout was only 58%, if the result was based on popular vote you can be sure turnout would be a lot higher and the popular vote different.
_________________
PowerSwitch on Facebook | The Oil Drum | Twitter | Blog
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
Posts: 3384

PostPosted: Mon Jan 09, 2017 11:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
My argument is that you can't go bounding around the popular vote number as if it means anything. It doesn't. Turnout was only 58%, if the result was based on popular vote you can be sure turnout would be a lot higher and the popular vote different.


If you say so.
_________________
If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while you count your money.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
Posts: 3384

PostPosted: Thu Jan 12, 2017 7:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
“Right now, these cycles are saying that the era in which governments could amass unpayable debts with impunity is coming to an end. And the cycle in which mankind pays the price for those debts will soon begin.”


Story........

A question about the possibility of an imminent depression. Some will no doubt disagree, but it would be as well to prepare. Then again it could be one of those scams to get you on the treadmill for "free" reports which don't seem to exist, rather like the end of the rainbow.
_________________
If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while you count your money.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    PowerSwitch Forum Index -> General Discussion All times are GMT + 1 Hour
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next
Page 4 of 5

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group