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Has shale boom peaked ?
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Wed Jan 25, 2017 12:17 am    Post subject: Has shale boom peaked ? Reply with quote

https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/us-shale-boom-has-peaked-says-former-govt-geoscientist-4c2d23c7412f#.88erl5ji0
Quote:

A former Canadian government geoscientist has just published new research showing that US shale oil and gas production has peaked, and is unlikely to increase substantially for the foreseeable future.
The two new reports find that US forecasts of oil and gas abundance are over-hyped, unrealistic, and ignore mounting evidence of an industry in decline.

On Monday, the Post Carbon Institute published two new studies by Dr J. David Hughes, a former research manager for 32 years at the Geological Survey of Canada, where he headed up research on unconventional gas and coal.

Hughes found that the US Energy Information Administrations (EIA) optimistic forecasts of US shale oil and gas production are highly unlikely to be realized.


If this report is true, then the growing resource crisis (please also see the HSBC peak oil report into long-term decline on oil fields around the world) is building up as we speak.

At some point it will explode in another oil spike, triggering a new wave of demand destruction (read recession/depression) and prices will plummet, following a boom and bust cycle.

If the populists across the West haven't got in by then, they will surely do after the next big economic crisis hits. Greer has predicted the oil spike around 2020 (which sounds about right to me)...
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adam2
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2017 12:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This thread appeared without any title. I have added a title that I felt to be suitable. The O/P is welcome to edit the title if they wish.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2017 12:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The other thing which people haven't "got" is the declining EROEI of our energy supplies. Any unit of energy produced has less energy left in it to power our lifestyles as it is taking more of the energy in that unit to produce the unit at the point of retail sale.

This is one of the reasons why the world is finding it hard to recover from the crash of 2008. It will be a major reason why the world will find it even more difficult to recover from any future crash. It will be one of the reasons why the next crash will be more severe than the last one.

We are on the roller coaster ride along the downslope of the peak oil curve.
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2017 1:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
The other thing which people haven't "got" is the declining EROEI of our energy supplies. Any unit of energy produced has less energy left in it to power our lifestyles as it is taking more of the energy in that unit to produce the unit at the point of retail sale.

This is one of the reasons why the world is finding it hard to recover from the crash of 2008.


Yes, yes and yes. It's not easy to explain the concept to people (well, I don't find it easy Embarassed ) but, once they get it, you're away. They become less inclined to trust politicians. Funny, eh?
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2017 1:56 pm    Post subject: Re: Has shale boom peaked ? Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/us-shale-boom-has-peaked-says-former-govt-geoscientist-4c2d23c7412f#.88erl5ji0
Quote:

A former Canadian government geoscientist has just published new research showing that US shale oil and gas production has peaked, and is unlikely to increase substantially for the foreseeable future.
The two new reports find that US forecasts of oil and gas abundance are over-hyped, unrealistic, and ignore mounting evidence of an industry in decline.

On Monday, the Post Carbon Institute published two new studies by Dr J. David Hughes, a former research manager for 32 years at the Geological Survey of Canada, where he headed up research on unconventional gas and coal.

Hughes found that the US Energy Information Administrations (EIA) optimistic forecasts of US shale oil and gas production are highly unlikely to be realized.


If this report is true, then the growing resource crisis (please also see the HSBC peak oil report into long-term decline on oil fields around the world) is building up as we speak.

At some point it will explode in another oil spike, triggering a new wave of demand destruction (read recession/depression) and prices will plummet, following a boom and bust cycle.

If the populists across the West haven't got in by then, they will surely do after the next big economic crisis hits. Greer has predicted the oil spike around 2020 (which sounds about right to me)...
and me
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It depends what people mean by the oil spike. The last one (and the spike in prices was in June 2008) was predicated by a consumption in excess of extraction for about 3 years. The key thing to watch, therefore, is inventories on a rolling year by year basis.

My own guess without doing any material amount of research is that shale has pulled back because of a reduction in price, but I think it has more years in it and that we should not expect a price spike until some time in the mid 2020s.

Methane hydrates remain the great unknown, but they will probably stay there.

One think Trump will do is unleash fossil fuel regulation in the USA. I think he has already started.
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fuzzy



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 01, 2017 10:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

John, do you have any insight on the gasification [by controlled burn front] of under N Sea coalbeds? Presumably this will become a major UK fuel when methane becomes less plentiful, and is achievable with current technology. Probably megatonnes of unwanted sulphur etc.
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raspberry-blower



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PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming2 wrote:


One think Trump will do is unleash fossil fuel regulation in the USA. I think he has already started.


You mean Deregulation there surely, John?
That is already underway.

As an aside, keep an eye out for the Fed's line on interest rates. Given the highly leveraged states of all fracking operators - along with the fact they are barely breaking even at the moment - any rate rise will cause financial distress in this sector
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2017 11:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Part of me says let him go ahead, unleash the suppressed energy America supposedly has.

Let's face, no-one is going to do a damned thing about climate change anyway, bar tokenism. 90+ million barrels today; 80+ million a decade ago. And a massive recession.

So let Trump and his global warming deniers come face-to-face with declining energy density.
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johnhemming2



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PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2017 3:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

fuzzy wrote:
John, do you have any insight on the gasification [by controlled burn front] of under N Sea coalbeds? Presumably this will become a major UK fuel when methane becomes less plentiful, and is achievable with current technology. Probably megatonnes of unwanted sulphur etc.

I don't know. There was always a mining union lobby for things like "clean coal".
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Pepperman



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PostPosted: Thu Feb 02, 2017 11:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

fuzzy wrote:
John, do you have any insight on the gasification [by controlled burn front] of under N Sea coalbeds? Presumably this will become a major UK fuel when methane becomes less plentiful, and is achievable with current technology. Probably megatonnes of unwanted sulphur etc.


It was recently ruled out, thank god:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/dec/08/underground-coal-gasification-uk-gas-coal
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2017 1:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pepperman wrote:
fuzzy wrote:
John, do you have any insight on the gasification [by controlled burn front] of under N Sea coalbeds? Presumably this will become a major UK fuel when methane becomes less plentiful, and is achievable with current technology. Probably megatonnes of unwanted sulphur etc.


It was recently ruled out, thank god:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/dec/08/underground-coal-gasification-uk-gas-coal
It will only remain "ruled out" as long as there are better and cheaper options. Let oil production worldwide decline by say thirty percent and they will be trying anything possible regardless of environmental costs.
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2017 10:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
Let oil production worldwide decline by say thirty percent and they will be trying anything possible regardless of environmental costs.


+1
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johnhemming2



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PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2017 4:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A lot depends on how well pv develops. Public demand for energy is already pushing up against sustainability.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 03, 2017 5:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PV has many uses but is not a substitute for the vast amounts of liquid fuels used for transport.
The PV powered mass market car is still some way away, the PV powered HGV is further away and the large PV powered airplane carrying hundreds of passengers seems unlikely to be ever achieved.
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