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2nd referendum on Scottish independence
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Snail



Joined: 14 Apr 2011
Posts: 693

PostPosted: Mon Mar 13, 2017 1:04 pm    Post subject: 2nd referendum on Scottish independence Reply with quote

A 2nd referendum on Scottish independence is now highly likely.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39255181


Last edited by Snail on Mon Mar 13, 2017 2:32 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's Sturgen's last throw of the dice
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 8640
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:25 pm    Post subject: Re: 2nd referendum on Scottish independence Reply with quote

Snail wrote:
A 2nd referendum on Scottish independence is now highly likely.


Nope, that's just typical SNP misleading bullshit. A 2nd referendum on independence remains extremely unlikely. Nicola Sturgeon's speech was all about what "ought" to happen or what she says "is likely", but actually, as anybody who follows the reality rather than believing then rhetoric knows, Scotland has no power to call a legally-binding independence referendum. What Ms Sturgeon "wants" is irrelevant.

She can ask all she likes - the tories will either say no outright, or offer something watered down. Various commentators have described this as "politically risky", but the truth is that the tories only have one seat in Scotland so pissing off the Scots presents no risk to the tories at all.

However - the real reason there isn't going to be a 2nd independence referendum any time soon is precisely the reason Ms Sturgeon says there ought to be one: Brexit. Brexit is going to be complex enough as it is, without there being a humungous unknowable thrown into the mix in the form of Scotland's status within the UK. Both the UK and EU negotiators need to know what they are negotiating. For example, what about Scotland's fisheries? As things stand, those fisheries are a UK bargaining chip in the negotiations, but if Scotland were to become independent then they'd be a Scottish resource, and if Scotland were to re-join the EU then they'd be an EU resource! It makes the negotiations practically impossible.

And on top of that, the nationalists have made no progress whatsoever in sorting out their Big Problems - what currency would Scotland use?, what would be Scotland's status wrt the EU? Without credible answers to those questions, even if there was a 2nd referendum, the nationalists would lose it.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adamWAM wrote:
It will be interesting to see what happens in terms of them staying in the EU and the rest of the UK leaving


The EU has already made this pretty clear, and the SNP have stuck their fingers in their ears and pretended they did not hear: Scotland would have to apply for membership like any other new country, and it is not guaranteed they would be accepted because certain other EU countries who have their own problems with wannabe-independent regions also have a veto.

This more of the same crap from the SNP: they are making claims and promises that they'd love to be able to deliver, but which they cannot deliver because the promises depend on some third party agreeing to them, and in each case the third party is a lot less interested than the SNP is.
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Snail



Joined: 14 Apr 2011
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 13, 2017 5:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, I think you're right. Your tone annoyed me, but I think I largely agree.

I do think a 2nd referendum would be granted, 'tho probably with more biased t&cs and time in favour of Westminster unlike last time.

But Nicola sturgeon knows this too. And maybe knows more about the potential European stance than us. She's not delusional. There has been a marked change in tone from Eu and Spain about Scotland:

"But, I asked him, would Spain try and veto Scotland re-entering?

"No because if you are thinking about Catalonia the situation is very very very different to the Scottish situation."http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39236117

This and other issues, and past and future European and usa elections, demonstrate that nothing stays the same. Bau is a fallacy. Change isnt. And it's interesting.

I voted for independence, and then for brexit, a goodwill vote for trump, and probably will for independence again. If it's granted of course! If it's even asked for!
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The EU are quite possibly giving Ms Sturgeon misleading signals on whether or not Scotland would be accepted in order to cause problems with the Brexit negotiations for the UK. If they were to leave the UK I cannot see the likes of Spain and Belgium and a few others wanting to give the Catalans and others a boost to their independence hopes by letting Scotland back into the EU. Meanwhile, a few smiles at the right time to Scots delegates won't hurt the Spaniards and others one little bit.
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Someone has to be willing to pay for Scotland. The oil won't.
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:31 pm    Post subject: Re: 2nd referendum on Scottish independence Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:


However - the real reason there isn't going to be a 2nd independence referendum any time soon is precisely the reason Ms Sturgeon says there ought to be one: Brexit. Brexit is going to be complex enough as it is, without there being a humungous unknowable thrown into the mix in the form of Scotland's status within the UK. Both the UK and EU negotiators need to know what they are negotiating. For example, what about Scotland's fisheries? As things stand, those fisheries are a UK bargaining chip in the negotiations, but if Scotland were to become independent then they'd be a Scottish resource, and if Scotland were to re-join the EU then they'd be an EU resource! It makes the negotiations practically impossible.



Yep there is an inordinate amount of wishful thinking attached to the SNP.

An interesting debate featuring Professor Mark Blyth on Austerity the Euro and Brexit can be found here
At around 25 minutes Mark nails the SNP Independence call quite comprehensively, liking them to a sulky teenager! Seems very apt to me..
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Mon Mar 13, 2017 9:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It goes beyond "wishful thinking". The whole of the current story they are peddling is that "Scotland deserves a real choice when the UK leaves the EU". But even if we get past the wishful thinking that the UK parliament is going to grant them a referendum, the EU has repeatedly stated that Scotland would have to join the back of the queue to gain membership, that it is very likely their application would be vetoed by Spain, and even if they were admitted it would be on significantly poorer terms than now.

It's wishful-thinking piled upon lies piled upon delusion. It doesn't matter what the SNP does, Scotland has no independent choice.

I'll have a look at your link now.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 14, 2017 5:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I saw a quote recently that Scotland is 13% of the UK and slightly over this in Parliament but would be 0.8% of the EU. They would have virtually no power to decide what happens in Scotland at all.

The number of Scottish ministers who have ruled the UK in recent years is quite staggering when compared to the size of populations. And the number who have cocked things up is even more staggering, Tony Bleh and Gordon Brown being chief among them!
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
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Location: The Marches, UK

PostPosted: Tue Mar 14, 2017 7:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tony Liar was a posh boy from Sedgefield - rural county Durham. Local ex coal miners hoped he would the next Bevin instead of Edward II as he turned out.
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johnhemming2



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PostPosted: Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think he can be described as being "from Sedgefield". He was the MP there, but that is a different issue.
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fuzzy



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PostPosted: Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Having just read his Wicki entry, it would appear the blame can be shared widely with Edinburgh being ground zero.
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Automaton



Joined: 22 Jan 2016
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I reckon Ms Sturgeon's goal is chaos. Make the English hate having to deal with Scotland, make the English people resent the Scottish, make the Scottish people feel they are mistreated (even more than they already do).... Maybe she has announced her intentions on a 2nd referendum simply because she's confident she won't get one, knowing that it will rile up people on both sides of the border. The relationship to EU membership is just that it's a convenient excuse.

Chaos is her chosen tool for a longer game. And if you're thinking 'how would that help the Scottish people', then you're missing the point; she doesn't care about the Scottish people, or what they want. She, like Salmond before her, wants her name in the history books as the person who 'freed' Scotland. Or at the very worst, that she was a 'hero' of the 'fight'. Don't forget, she is a politician, after all.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 6:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the SNP have misjudged this. I don't think it is going to win much in the way of new support for independence - just makes them look rather stupid, and weak.

Theresa may rules out 2nd referendum. That's that sorted out for another 2 years, and after Brexit the SNP won't be able to lie about how independence means membership of the EU.
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