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Brexit process
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7216
Location: UK

PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Johnson massively in the lead on the first round. Unless he royally fucks up, he is in the last two.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10162
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Johnson massively in the lead on the first round. Unless he royally fucks up, he is in the last two.


He's basically already in the last two. He'd actually have to lose people who have already voted for him for two other candidates to beat him.

Which means he's going to be the next prime minister. They might as well just end the contest now so he can get on with calling that election...
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10162
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 7:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rory Stewart is now the second most popular candidate on ConservativeHome:



From: https://unherd.com/2019/06/what-rory-got-right/

Is it possible that he could come from nowhere to win this? Sounds impossible, but maybe it isn't. Maybe the last two will be Johnson and Stewart, and the tory membership will realise that Johnson is making promises he can't keep.

Just checked the betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister

Rory Stewart is now equal third favourite to win. Johnson is still way ahead, but Stewart has gone from rank outsider to equality with Gove.
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Snail



Joined: 14 Apr 2011
Posts: 789

PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

quote="Snail"]
jonny2mad wrote:
http://rorystewart.co.uk/ I wonder future pm Shocked


Rory Stewart's probably the most poshest MP I've ever seen/heard. Ex-Intelligence service, former royal-tutor, a wannabe Lawarence of Arabia. Now you've mentioned him tho, I can really imagine him as a future PM. Wonder if David Cameron or Tony Blair ever attended before becoming prime minister? I wonder too why Peter Mendelson is invited?

Crikey, it's not that long ago that people didn't even believe in the existence of such a group.[/quote]

-------------
From Bilderberg 2011 Watch thread. Cool
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7216
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stewart is the establishment's choice and so everything is being done to bull him up and, to that extent, a bit of creative accounting with the numbers over at Conservative Home would not surprise me in the least.

It might "work", it might not. But, even assuming it does, it will be a Pyrrhic victory since it will mark the beginning of the death of the Tory party.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10162
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Stewart is the establishment's choice and so everything is being done to bull him up and, to that extent, a bit of creative accounting with the numbers over at Conservative Home would not surprise me in the least.

It might "work", it might not. But, even assuming it does, it will be a Pyrrhic victory since it will mark the beginning of the death of the Tory party.


He might turn out to be what saves the tory party after Johnson has finished.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7216
Location: UK

PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote:
Stewart is the establishment's choice and so everything is being done to bull him up and, to that extent, a bit of creative accounting with the numbers over at Conservative Home would not surprise me in the least.

It might "work", it might not. But, even assuming it does, it will be a Pyrrhic victory since it will mark the beginning of the death of the Tory party.


He might turn out to be what saves the tory party after Johnson has finished.
Laughing
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clv101
Site Admin


Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 8165

PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
...since it will mark the beginning of the death of the Tory party.

Surely May's staked her claim fairly strongly that particular accolade?
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10162
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Breaking news: Chuka is now a Libdem.

And Hancock is going to pull out of the leadership, which might make it easier for Stewart to get through the next round.


Last edited by UndercoverElephant on Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:46 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4908
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rory is on the wrong end of the Brexit divide to win with the activists.
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Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10162
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Rory is on the wrong end of the Brexit divide to win with the activists.


That seems to be true, but the data from ConservativeHome suggests there's something else going on too. Maybe some of them are worried that Boris can't deliver, and think Stewart might turn out to be a better strategist.

I mean...what do you think is going to happen in the TV debates when Stewart meets Johnson. Johnson's problem is that Stewart has a very good argument, and he may well crucify Johnson by asking him questions to which Johnson has no sensible answer.

Stewart: What are you going to do if the EU won't renegotiate and Parliament stops no deal?

Johnson: ????

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9291060/boris-johnsons-tory-leadership-rivals-tv-debate/

Johnson is the only one not to have committed to taking part. Ducking out will look terrible. That's what May did, and it cost her.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4908
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Boris has already said that in that eventuality he will reluctantly go for hard Brexit in 31 October.

Whether he actually will is another matter but rory is v clear that he is totally opposed to a hard Brexit.

I do like rory, he is a very British oddball and apart from brexit seems to be a reasonably sensible centre right politician.

But Tory activists understand, better then many mps, why getting Brexit done is key to the survival of the party.

So does boris by his own comments. Its boris to lose.
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 5579
Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The seems to be quite a strong establishment backlash against Johnson. The foreign office is quite open in saying he was an utter disaster as foreign secretary, a senior member of the party said on R4 this morning that he would resign the party if Johnson wins.

He is being called out as a liar and morally unfit to be PM.

How that will go down with the membership is yet to be seen.
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 1152
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Mark wrote:
Lord Beria3 wrote:
UE - I will remind you that by legal default we are leaving on 31st October 2019.


That's what you, LJ, Stumuz etc. repeated ad nauseam before the 29th March deadline....., and the 12th April deadline.....
Why so confident that the 31st October deadline will be any different ??


Indeed, and at least two candidates for the tory leadership contest have already said that the October "deadline" is no such thing and could be extended.
I know not exactly how this this would be achieved but it seems clear that a majority of MPs wish to remain in the EU, and that if they can not achieve staying in, will use whatever means are available to delay, frustrate, and water down Brexit.


No response from our friend in Moscow....
Rory for PM.....???
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10162
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Boris has already said that in that eventuality he will reluctantly go for hard Brexit in 31 October.

Whether he actually will is another matter but rory is v clear that he is totally opposed to a hard Brexit.


That's not the question. The question is whether he actually can. And if the tory membership start wondering if perhaps the answer is no, Boris might just find himself in trouble.

Quote:

I do like rory, he is a very British oddball and apart from brexit seems to be a reasonably sensible centre right politician.

But Tory activists understand, better then many mps, why getting Brexit done is key to the survival of the party.


There's no question that if Brexit is not delivered, the tories face extinction. But if Stewart keeps asking "But how??" and Johnson can't give a believable answer, this contest could change very quickly.

The others are not serious contenders. Hancock is pulling out, Hunt and Gove are two well known and both loathed by electorate, as well as being a bit slimy/wobbly on brexit. Raab comes across as a bit of a psychopath, and is proposing something impossible (proroguing parliament). And Javid is Asian and won't make the last four.

But Rory Stewart is a fresh face, clearly very intelligent and actually trying to tell people the truth (as he sees it). I can see enough tory MPs switching to him at the last moment to ensure he stays in the competition for each successive round, and once he starts to build momentum then he might displace all of the others one by one.

And in a Johnson vs Stewart runoff among the members, he's got a whole month to bash Johnson over the head with that question: "How are you going to deliver, Boris?"
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