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Brexit process
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7026
Location: UK

PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

All of which is predicated on the assumption that MPs are not the spineless self serving cabal that they are who, when push comes to shove, will instigate a VoNC in sufficient numbers and, in doing so, will show the electorate they are willing, once more, to attempt to thwart Brexit resulting in their near certain annihilation in a subsequent GE which, in turn, will lead to Brexit one way or another anyway.

Stop pretending you are anything other than a Remainer now UE. The pretense is wearing thin. You are now openly promoting a candidate whose overt intent would be to push through May's new EU treaty. A treaty that, by your own previous admission, is a steaming pile of treacherous shit.

Or, has your position on that "evolved" as well?
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Plus 1 UE.

Media are desperately promoting Rory and he has become a cult figure among liberal remainers.

Scratch the surface and that whole rory is second most popular among tory activists blows up.

He got 11 per cent of the vote, marginally ahead of his peers, but still far behind boris.

Whether or not Rory gets to final 2, this is Boris to win.

Telegraph...

Quote:
Steve Baker, the vice chairman of the European Research Group of Tory MPs is expected to be made Brexit Secretary, in a clear statement of intent from Mr Johnson that he intends to deliver on his promise to take Britain out of the EU by October 31. Mr Baker has never voted for Mrs May's exit deal


If this is true boris is committed to leaving on 31 October, deal or no deal. Time to add to my hard Brexit bet on betfair?
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9890
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
All of which is predicated on the assumption that MPs are not the spineless self serving cabal that they are who, when push comes to shove, will instigate a VoNC in sufficient numbers and, in doing so, will show the electorate they are willing, once more, to attempt to thwart Brexit resulting in their near certain annihilation in a subsequent GE which, in turn, will lead to Brexit one way or another anyway.


I didn't follow that. I don't understand why what I am suggesting might happen needs a VonC.

Quote:

Stop pretending you are anything other than a Remainer now UE.


I am absolutely not a remainer. My priority, as ever, is to see the tory party totally destroyed and (hopefully) a socialist government which changes politics in this country forever. If we can get brexit too, that would be great.

Quote:

The pretense is wearing thin. You are now openly promoting a candidate whose overt intent would be to push through May's new EU treaty. A treaty that, by your own previous admission, is a steaming pile of treacherous shit.


I don't know why you think I am "promoting" Rory Stewart. He's a tory. I hate all of them. Stewart is not looking after any interests of mine. I really am just reflecting what is happening and what the media is reporting. It's not me who has sent Stewart to second in the betting. I don't bet.

Although to be clear...I would be pleased if Stewart wins. Not because I think he'll stop brexit, but because I think this will solidify the tory-BXP split. If Stewart wins then the "one-nation" pro-EU tories would have won the tory civil war and the Brexit Party will become the ERG.

Quote:

Or, has your position on that "evolved" as well?


Nope, it is still a terrible deal and my position is still that May's deal is worse than either remaining as a full member or leaving without a deal.

You are quite convinced that what I want has changed, or that I have been lying about what I want, but neither is true. I think what has actually happened is that the situation in the real world is now heading more and more towards an outcome you personally don't like. The truth is that while we are both leavers, I care more about the destruction of the tory party than brexit but you care more about brexit.


Last edited by UndercoverElephant on Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:52 am; edited 1 time in total
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:


Scratch the surface and that whole rory is second most popular among tory activists blows up



Then why is he second in the betting? That's not a remainer fantasy - it is people who think they might be able to make some easy money.

Quote:

Whether or not Rory gets to final 2, this is Boris to win.


I think you're probably right. I have not said I think Stewart will win this. I don't. What I've said is that he might just cause an upset. I'd still put a Johnson victory at 85% likely.

Quote:

If this is true boris is committed to leaving on 31 October, deal or no deal. Time to add to my hard Brexit bet on betfair?


It doesn't matter what Boris is committed to if he can't deliver it.

I saw a post last night by a tory on social media, talking about a potential Stewart vs Johnson run-off, and they were raving about how if this happens, Boris "would be the candidate of both renegotiate and no deal!". The implication being "How could he lose??" And the answer is that as far as Rory Stewart is concerned, both of those are unicorns, and Johnson's problem is that Stewart is probably correct.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fascinating poll by yougov of tory party members:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/18/most-conservative-members-would-see-party-destroye

They are the opposite of me. They actually care more about keeping Corbyn out of power than they do about brexit.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7026
Location: UK

PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
...The truth is that while we are both leavers, I care more about the destruction of the tory party than brexit but you care more about brexit.
No, the truth is you care more about the destruction of the Tory party than you do about democracy.

Actually, it's hard to discern precisely what you care about. But, democracy is clearly not on the list.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
...The truth is that while we are both leavers, I care more about the destruction of the tory party than brexit but you care more about brexit.
No, the truth is you care more about the destruction of the Tory party than you do about democracy.


It's actually part of the same thing. The tory party is the single largest obstacle to proper democracy in this country.

Any predictions for tonight?

My guess is that Javid will come last and Raab may struggle to get 33 votes. Stewart will go through.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Laura Kuhnsberg wrote:

Deals and counter-deals?

Until 18.00 BST, much of Westminster will be preoccupied with counting the number of hypothetical votes that are going to each one of the aspiring prime ministers.

Scurrilous whispers are whizzing round about deals and counter-deals.

There are suggestions that some of Michael Gove and Boris Johnson's declared backers are secretly reaching out to Rory Stewart and gently wondering about potential jobs.

Conspiracists suggest that Boris Johnson's team are ordering some of their supporters to vote today for Jeremy Hunt to ensure he faces what they see as a vanilla politician in the final two.


This situation has changed pretty fast. Stewart is now considered not only the favourite to make the final ballot of members along with Johnson, but tory MPs believe he might just win. Johnson will be badly exposed if that is the final two, because he has committed himself to undeliverable promises, and Stewart is capable of convincing people of this.

Funny old world, eh?
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Boris Johnson - 126

Jeremy Hunt – 46

Michael Gove – 41

Dominic Raab – 30

Sajid Javid – 33

Rory Stewart – 37
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So, Johnson has won by a massive margin in the second round with 126 votes. Meanwhile Stewart has scraped through the second round with 37 votes.

At the same time, a poll of party members puts Stewart at the bottom of any vote to become PM.

But, Stewart is "considered" to be a "favourite" to go up against Johnson in the final two... right? Or, even more laughably, that should he make it to the final two, he is capable of beating Johnson.

You posts are sounding more ridiculous and, frankly, more desperate by the day UE. You are basically regurgitating establishment bullshit which, itself, is designed to create a false narrative out of fresh air on the basis of the old maxim that if you tell a lie often enough....

Stewart is the globalist wing of the establishment's last big hope against all the odds. Who knows, maybe their MSM assisted bullshit will pay off. But I doubt it. Either way, it is still bullshit and you are propagating it.


Last edited by Little John on Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:59 pm; edited 6 times in total
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stewart winning among the activists! Utter nonsense. His polling among Tory activists is dreadful and he will lose by a landslide to Boris.

Just check the yougov website if you don't believe me!
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:

You posts are sounding more ridiculous and, frankly, more desperate by the day UE.


I have no idea why you think that. I've told you my motives and reasons. A desperate remainer I am not.

Quote:

You are basically regurgitating establishment bullshit which, itself, is designed to create a false narrative out of fresh air on the basis of the old maxim that if you tell a lie often enough....


Nope, I genuinely believe parliament will block no deal, and the rest of Stewart's arguments follow directly from that. This is not a "false narrative". It's reality.

For me, politics is a spectator sport I occasionally get to play a minor part in (by voting). It's fascinating, especially when something unexpected turns up, and Rory Stewart is unexpected.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Stewart winning among the activists! Utter nonsense. His polling among Tory activists is dreadful and he will lose by a landslide to Boris.


He may well lose badly to Johnson. I am NOT predicting he will win (as I have made very clear, but it appears some people are not reading what I am actually writing).

He will make it through the next round of voting though, assuming Javid doesn't pull out beforehand. Javid will come last.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The one thing that must be acknowledged is that all of the hard Brexiteers bar Johnson are now eliminated from the contest. So, once he has picked up Raab's votes, most of the remaining votes are going to start to concentrate on fewer candidates - all of whom are soft Brexiteers/Remainers.

However, even assuming the above ongoing process, Johnson's vote count in the next round would be in the mid 150's (if he picks up most/all of Rabb's votes) and all of the rest, added together, would not exceed 140.
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don’t think Johnson was ever a hard brexiteer, just an opportunist who saw a chance for some publicity.
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