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Brexit process
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9624
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
https://order-order.com/2019/06/17/rory-mania-lead-boris-coronation/?fbclid=IwAR0ehARMGvlHxOT2yBYTuSrRGxAtukIbxGc1zEagcKwN6TWlYh2yUGwCJUA

Quote:
Boris Johnson could become Prime Minister tomorrow, thanks to Rory Stewart, obviating the need to go to any public hustings. The 1922 Committee’s new threshold rules mean that any candidate who gets fewer than 33 votes tomorrow is automatically eliminated from the contest, meaning if all but Boris fail to meet the threshold, he becomes PM. There is a real (if small) chance that due to Rory’s disruption, Hunt and Gove could slip back a little and other candidates not gain enough new supporters for an accidental coronation to happen…


Interesting.

Still, suspect Hunt should get past the 33 mark at least.


Did you watch Newsnight? It's all about Stewart now. There's an organised campaign to attempt to knock him out tomorrow, because Gove and Johnson supporters think he's got a chance of winning if he builds up any more momentum. He's wrong-footed the lot of them, because they were all competing with each other to promise undeliverables and none of them were expecting to compete with somebody who's gone for telling it straight.

Stewart could win this. The bookies have him in the clear as second favourite now.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"Telling it straight"?

You are funny UE.

So, the mainstream media is attacking Johnson full on at precisely the same time Stewart is being given massive, largely benign, airtime.

They clearly think we are all stupid.

It's pathetic.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9624
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7149291/Rory-Stewart-surges-SECOND-favourite-says-100-cent-wont-work-Boris-Johnson.html

Quote:

Now Theresa May’s deputy David Lidington backs Rory Stewart as the former wildcard Tory leadership candidate gets late surge of support from MPs who want to see Boris Johnson 'knocked down a peg or two'


If Stewart makes the last two, this could be very interesting indeed. He could change the contest away from being directly about brexit, into something about competence and honesty. To win, he needs to convince the membership that Johnson can't deliver, and this is not such an impossible task if Stewart is unafraid of speaking unwelcome truths.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
"Telling it straight"?

You are funny UE.

So, the mainstream media is attacking Johnson full on at precisely the same time Stewart is being given massive, largely benign, airtime.

They clearly think we are all stupid.

It's pathetic.


Johnson is only being given less airtime because he's hiding from the media. And yes, Rory Stewart has decided to employ a completely unexpected tactic of being an honest politician. It's actually rather clever. I am as cynical as it is possible to be about politicians, and I think Stewart is being intentionally as straight as possible. His position is very simple: parliament won't allow no deal to happen, and (therefore) the EU won't change the backstop. I think he honestly believes those two things, I think he's right on both counts and I think it is possible that after a month of him bashing Johnson over the head with this, he could win.

I also think it is possible that Stewart could get May's deal through with Labour votes (if Labour goes full remain at the party conference), while Johnson could fail to deliver brexit at all by losing to Corbyn in an election.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

All of which is predicated on the assumption that MPs are not the spineless self serving cabal that they are who, when push comes to shove, will instigate a VoNC in sufficient numbers and, in doing so, will show the electorate they are willing, once more, to attempt to thwart Brexit resulting in their near certain annihilation in a subsequent GE which, in turn, will lead to Brexit one way or another anyway.

Stop pretending you are anything other than a Remainer now UE. The pretense is wearing thin. You are now openly promoting a candidate whose overt intent would be to push through May's new EU treaty. A treaty that, by your own previous admission, is a steaming pile of treacherous shit.

Or, has your position on that "evolved" as well?
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4634
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Plus 1 UE.

Media are desperately promoting Rory and he has become a cult figure among liberal remainers.

Scratch the surface and that whole rory is second most popular among tory activists blows up.

He got 11 per cent of the vote, marginally ahead of his peers, but still far behind boris.

Whether or not Rory gets to final 2, this is Boris to win.

Telegraph...

Quote:
Steve Baker, the vice chairman of the European Research Group of Tory MPs is expected to be made Brexit Secretary, in a clear statement of intent from Mr Johnson that he intends to deliver on his promise to take Britain out of the EU by October 31. Mr Baker has never voted for Mrs May's exit deal


If this is true boris is committed to leaving on 31 October, deal or no deal. Time to add to my hard Brexit bet on betfair?
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9624
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
All of which is predicated on the assumption that MPs are not the spineless self serving cabal that they are who, when push comes to shove, will instigate a VoNC in sufficient numbers and, in doing so, will show the electorate they are willing, once more, to attempt to thwart Brexit resulting in their near certain annihilation in a subsequent GE which, in turn, will lead to Brexit one way or another anyway.


I didn't follow that. I don't understand why what I am suggesting might happen needs a VonC.

Quote:

Stop pretending you are anything other than a Remainer now UE.


I am absolutely not a remainer. My priority, as ever, is to see the tory party totally destroyed and (hopefully) a socialist government which changes politics in this country forever. If we can get brexit too, that would be great.

Quote:

The pretense is wearing thin. You are now openly promoting a candidate whose overt intent would be to push through May's new EU treaty. A treaty that, by your own previous admission, is a steaming pile of treacherous shit.


I don't know why you think I am "promoting" Rory Stewart. He's a tory. I hate all of them. Stewart is not looking after any interests of mine. I really am just reflecting what is happening and what the media is reporting. It's not me who has sent Stewart to second in the betting. I don't bet.

Although to be clear...I would be pleased if Stewart wins. Not because I think he'll stop brexit, but because I think this will solidify the tory-BXP split. If Stewart wins then the "one-nation" pro-EU tories would have won the tory civil war and the Brexit Party will become the ERG.

Quote:

Or, has your position on that "evolved" as well?


Nope, it is still a terrible deal and my position is still that May's deal is worse than either remaining as a full member or leaving without a deal.

You are quite convinced that what I want has changed, or that I have been lying about what I want, but neither is true. I think what has actually happened is that the situation in the real world is now heading more and more towards an outcome you personally don't like. The truth is that while we are both leavers, I care more about the destruction of the tory party than brexit but you care more about brexit.


Last edited by UndercoverElephant on Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:52 am; edited 1 time in total
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:


Scratch the surface and that whole rory is second most popular among tory activists blows up



Then why is he second in the betting? That's not a remainer fantasy - it is people who think they might be able to make some easy money.

Quote:

Whether or not Rory gets to final 2, this is Boris to win.


I think you're probably right. I have not said I think Stewart will win this. I don't. What I've said is that he might just cause an upset. I'd still put a Johnson victory at 85% likely.

Quote:

If this is true boris is committed to leaving on 31 October, deal or no deal. Time to add to my hard Brexit bet on betfair?


It doesn't matter what Boris is committed to if he can't deliver it.

I saw a post last night by a tory on social media, talking about a potential Stewart vs Johnson run-off, and they were raving about how if this happens, Boris "would be the candidate of both renegotiate and no deal!". The implication being "How could he lose??" And the answer is that as far as Rory Stewart is concerned, both of those are unicorns, and Johnson's problem is that Stewart is probably correct.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fascinating poll by yougov of tory party members:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/18/most-conservative-members-would-see-party-destroye

They are the opposite of me. They actually care more about keeping Corbyn out of power than they do about brexit.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 6797
Location: UK

PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
...The truth is that while we are both leavers, I care more about the destruction of the tory party than brexit but you care more about brexit.
No, the truth is you care more about the destruction of the Tory party than you do about democracy.

Actually, it's hard to discern precisely what you care about. But, democracy is clearly not on the list.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9624
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 10:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
...The truth is that while we are both leavers, I care more about the destruction of the tory party than brexit but you care more about brexit.
No, the truth is you care more about the destruction of the Tory party than you do about democracy.


It's actually part of the same thing. The tory party is the single largest obstacle to proper democracy in this country.

Any predictions for tonight?

My guess is that Javid will come last and Raab may struggle to get 33 votes. Stewart will go through.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 4:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Laura Kuhnsberg wrote:

Deals and counter-deals?

Until 18.00 BST, much of Westminster will be preoccupied with counting the number of hypothetical votes that are going to each one of the aspiring prime ministers.

Scurrilous whispers are whizzing round about deals and counter-deals.

There are suggestions that some of Michael Gove and Boris Johnson's declared backers are secretly reaching out to Rory Stewart and gently wondering about potential jobs.

Conspiracists suggest that Boris Johnson's team are ordering some of their supporters to vote today for Jeremy Hunt to ensure he faces what they see as a vanilla politician in the final two.


This situation has changed pretty fast. Stewart is now considered not only the favourite to make the final ballot of members along with Johnson, but tory MPs believe he might just win. Johnson will be badly exposed if that is the final two, because he has committed himself to undeliverable promises, and Stewart is capable of convincing people of this.

Funny old world, eh?
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Boris Johnson - 126

Jeremy Hunt – 46

Michael Gove – 41

Dominic Raab – 30

Sajid Javid – 33

Rory Stewart – 37
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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Location: UK

PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So, Johnson has won by a massive margin in the second round with 126 votes. Meanwhile Stewart has scraped through the second round with 37 votes.

At the same time, a poll of party members puts Stewart at the bottom of any vote to become PM.

But, Stewart is "considered" to be a "favourite" to go up against Johnson in the final two... right? Or, even more laughably, that should he make it to the final two, he is capable of beating Johnson.

You posts are sounding more ridiculous and, frankly, more desperate by the day UE. You are basically regurgitating establishment bullshit which, itself, is designed to create a false narrative out of fresh air on the basis of the old maxim that if you tell a lie often enough....

Stewart is the globalist wing of the establishment's last big hope against all the odds. Who knows, maybe their MSM assisted bullshit will pay off. But I doubt it. Either way, it is still bullshit and you are propagating it.


Last edited by Little John on Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:59 pm; edited 6 times in total
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 6:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stewart winning among the activists! Utter nonsense. His polling among Tory activists is dreadful and he will lose by a landslide to Boris.

Just check the yougov website if you don't believe me!
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