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Brexit process
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9606
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:

You posts are sounding more ridiculous and, frankly, more desperate by the day UE.


I have no idea why you think that. I've told you my motives and reasons. A desperate remainer I am not.

Quote:

You are basically regurgitating establishment bullshit which, itself, is designed to create a false narrative out of fresh air on the basis of the old maxim that if you tell a lie often enough....


Nope, I genuinely believe parliament will block no deal, and the rest of Stewart's arguments follow directly from that. This is not a "false narrative". It's reality.

For me, politics is a spectator sport I occasionally get to play a minor part in (by voting). It's fascinating, especially when something unexpected turns up, and Rory Stewart is unexpected.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Stewart winning among the activists! Utter nonsense. His polling among Tory activists is dreadful and he will lose by a landslide to Boris.


He may well lose badly to Johnson. I am NOT predicting he will win (as I have made very clear, but it appears some people are not reading what I am actually writing).

He will make it through the next round of voting though, assuming Javid doesn't pull out beforehand. Javid will come last.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The one thing that must be acknowledged is that all of the hard Brexiteers bar Johnson are now eliminated from the contest. So, once he has picked up Raab's votes, most of the remaining votes are going to start to concentrate on fewer candidates - all of whom are soft Brexiteers/Remainers.

However, even assuming the above ongoing process, Johnson's vote count in the next round would be in the mid 150's (if he picks up most/all of Rabb's votes) and all of the rest, added together, would not exceed 140.
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don’t think Johnson was ever a hard brexiteer, just an opportunist who saw a chance for some publicity.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quite possibly.

However, he is not stupid and is right to point out that if the Tories kick the can again in October they are finished, after 200 years of existence, as a political force in the UK. To that extent, I think it at least likely he will enact Brexit no matter what.

As for whether he tries to push through a slight variation of May's shitty deal; that remains to be seen. But, if he does and if he thinks this will save the Tories, then he is mistaken. The only thing that will save the Tories, or the Labour party in the long run for that matter, is if they stop f***ing around with democracy and enact the will of the people as per the vote of 2016.
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whoever wins will have to deal with a rather unsavoury and disreputable EU cretin like this. I wonder who the criminals are who are accepting the bribes?
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Watching the debate.

All very tough on no-deal... apart from Rory.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/06/10/labour-must-not-become-the-party-of-remain/

Quote:
Constructive ambiguity on the issue of Brexit has cost Labour dearly this year, first in the local elections in May and then in the European Parliament elections. Anyone with an ounce of political nous should have realised that this would be the case. One of the giants of the Labour movement and of the Labour left, Aneurin Bevan, once remarked, ‘We know what happens to people who stay in the middle of the road. They get run down.’ This is precisely what has happened to Labour.

We have not been clear as to what our policy is on Brexit and so it is entirely understandable that the electorate angrily abandoned us at the polls in favour of parties with clear messages. But many in the Labour Party are taking precisely the wrong lesson from this, and arguing that Labour should become a full-on party of Remain, rather than upholding our pledge to respect the referendum result. This would be a grave mistake.

Almost immediately after the European elections, in which Labour came third, shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry suggested Labour should now back a second referendum and campaign to remain in the European Union. Other senior figures have made similar overtures. There has, of course, been a robust, determined and well-funded Remain effort within the Labour Party since the 2016 referendum. But all the electoral arithmetic shows that pursuing a pro-Remain policy would be an electoral disaster for the Labour Party on an unprecedented scale. If this were to happen, Labour may never recover from it.

The elections this year, including the Peterborough by-election last week, show us that there is still a Leave majority in most of Labour’s constituencies outside of London. There was an 8.6 per cent swing from Labour to the Brexit Party in Peterborough. In many Labour seats in the European elections, including Hartlepool, Bolsover and Redcar, the Brexit Party beat Labour by a significant margin. If Labour had been completely in favour of a second referendum, and pledged to campaign for Remain in that referendum, we would not have won Peterborough. And changing tack now would mean future Labour losses to the Brexit Party in places such as Ashfield, Dudley and Stoke, closing off the prospect of a Labour government.

A majority of Labour MPs voted to hold the referendum and a majority of Labour MPs voted to trigger Article 50. Labour promised in 2016 to accept the outcome of the referendum, and in the 2017 election our pro-Leave manifesto helped us make enormous gains in many parts of the country. The manifesto was clear that we would leave the European Union and end freedom of movement. It was on that basis that we deprived the Tories of a majority and held on to Labour Leave voters and constituencies. The voters we need to secure in the next General Election are going to be Leave voters in small towns and post-industrial towns.

But despite all this, over the past two years forces within Labour have tried to move us towards a Remain position. Party policy is now that Labour should back a second referendum, but only after all other options, including a General Election, have been exhausted. This fudge has allowed Labour to hold on to some Leave-supporting voters, but their patience with us is clearly wearing thin, as is the patience of certain MPs keen to push for a more unequivocal Remain position.

The narrative that has evolved is that Labour is losing votes to the Lib Dems and that we therefore need to support a second referendum. Peterborough showed us that this is not a wholly accurate analysis. In marginal seats like Peterborough, where the next General Election will be lost or won, Labour needs to continue with its message of accepting the outcome of the referendum. A majority of Labour’s most marginal seats are Leave seats, and a majority of the seats Labour needs to win in order to achieve a majority in the House of Commons also voted Leave. Backing a second referendum and Remain will not win Labour the next election.

Those backing a second referendum say it will bring the country back together. The elections this year have shown that the opposite is true. The country is just as divided as it was in 2016 and those divisions have become even more entrenched. A second referendum would only demonstrate those divisions, not heal them. The clock is ticking down to the UK’s departure from the European Union and the public is exhausted by Brexit. Most people now want the issue to be over and done with so that we can return our focus to important domestic policy.

Jeremy Corbyn has done his best thus far to resist calls for Labour to become an unambiguous Remain party. The party conference in September will see a mighty push from the Remain campaign to ensure Labour does become the party of Remain. If Jeremy is serious about becoming prime minister, with a mandate to implement Labour’s radical social and economic agenda, then he must use all his authority as leader to face down those Remain voices and stand true with the British people who voted to leave the European Union. If he does this, then we will win those marginal seats and we will have a Labour government. If he fails to do this, then the Labour vote in those crucial seats will splinter and Jeremy will lead Labour to a terrible defeat when the next election comes.

Brendan Chilton
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9606
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Labour are going to back a second referendum today. If Johnson wins the tory leadership then we will end up with a clear split - Tory + BXP going for no deal, everybody else going for referendum/remain. Election in August.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4627
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 11:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ge more likely on October.

Boris still likely to win.

I'm calling it for Gove to get final 2. Odds look juicy on betfair.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 6785
Location: UK

PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stewart is out and Jonhson increases vote share to mid 140s

3rd round results:

Boris Johnson: 143 votes -- +17

Jeremy Hunt: 54 -- +8

Michael Gove: 51 -- +10

Sajid Javid: 38 -- +5

Rory Stewart: 27 -- -10


Last edited by Little John on Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:21 pm; edited 3 times in total
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is boring now. Hunt vs Johnson in the last round, might as well just give it to Johnson and get on with it.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sajid Javid making an absolute tit of himself on LBC


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9uAVgOCCRA&feature=share
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4627
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
This is boring now. Hunt vs Johnson in the last round, might as well just give it to Johnson and get on with it.


Not sure that is in the bag yet UE.

Gove might still pull it off. Very tight between Gove and Hunt.

Stewart's votes will mainly go to Gove who is most weak on no-deal. That will leap Gove beyond Hunt.

Sajit votes are key - presumably Sajit will support Johnson but some will peel off to Hunt and Gove.

The wild card is a dark arts operation by Team Boris to swing it for Hunt over Gove.

All to play for Wink
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Little John



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 7:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If Gove "pulls it off", it will be a Pyrrhic victory since we are then surely looking at the Brexit party completely destroying the Conservative party at the next GE
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