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Brexit process
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10226
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1138864/Brexit-news-tory-crisis-labour-MPs-defections-Liberal-Democrats-Ed-Davey

Quote:

Tory CRISIS: Party facing mass exodus to rival Lib Dems as MPs make 'unthinkable' plans
THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS could be set to welcome MPs defecting from Labour and the Conservatives, leadership candidate Sir Ed Davey has sensationally claimed.


What was that about Turkeys not voting for Christmas?

If just two tory MPs in strongly remain-voting seats defect to the libdems, Johnson's working majority has gone and he will probably lose a VonC. And those MPs would stand an excellent chance of holding on to their seats.

Labour defectors to the libdems are less important, since they make no difference to the timing of an election.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
If just two tory MPs in strongly remain-voting seats defect to the libdems, Johnson's working majority has gone and he will probably lose a VonC. And those MPs would stand an excellent chance of holding on to their seats.

Who do you have in mind? Which Tories are currently sitting in strong remain seats, where they could defect, stand as LibDem and win?

Take Richmond Park 71% remain, Zac Goldsmith won with 28,588 votes in 2017... problem is Lib Dems were 2nd with Sarah Olney getting 28,543 votes! Goldsmith can't defect to LibDems - they already have a 'real' Lib Dem candidate, they would never chose him over Olney.

Chelsea and Fulham is more interesting, again 71% remain with Tory Greg Hands holding a large majority over Labour. He could defect to Lib Dems and stand on their pro-remain ticket... however, Lib Dems only took 11% of the vote in 2017. It would be an incredible swing for them to win (only 5.2% in 2015).

Hard to see where a Tory could defect and stand on a LibDim ticket with any chance of winning. In strong remain areas, Lib Dems already have well established local parties and candidates - they are unlikely to accept a turn-coat Tory.

So yes, a few pro-remain Tories could defect, bring Boris down through losing a vote of no confidence - however, they'd probably go on to lose the seats in the following election.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Greg Hands in Chelsea and Fulham is exactly the sort of seat the LibDems might win after a defection. Although I doubt he's top of the list as a potential defector.

You're right it does rather depend on the seat, so we need to find out who these potential defectors actually are.
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oobers



Joined: 05 Dec 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think we should now have a second referendum. I’d like the options to be:
A) Would you like to leave the EU?
B) Would you like to remain in the EU?
If A), would you like to 1) leave with the deal as currently offered by the EU?or
2) leave with no deal?
So, it would be a 2 part question, to avoid the split of the leave vote. Is that feasible?
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Vortex2



Joined: 13 Jan 2019
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:36 pm    Post subject: Re: Voted Reply with quote

I chose NOT to vote for a party entertainer with a hypnotic pull over his acolytes.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

oobers wrote:
I think we should now have a second referendum. I’d like the options to be:
A) Would you like to leave the EU?
B) Would you like to remain in the EU?
If A), would you like to 1) leave with the deal as currently offered by the EU?or
2) leave with no deal?
So, it would be a 2 part question, to avoid the split of the leave vote. Is that feasible?


No. The problem is that it forces people who want no deal to set themselves up for a deal-exit, which for many is the worst possible outcome. They can't vote to leave in the first part without risking getting an outcome that is even worse than remaining. So this would be rejected by most supporters of a no deal brexit as being rigged in favour of May's deal.

May's deal should not even be on the ballot paper. The only sane format, IMHO, is remain vs no deal.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Policy wise, Hunt and Boris seem to have converged.

Both have rejected the backstop (even a time limit).

Both endorse a no-deal by October if a better deal cannot be negotiated.

Both advocate public spending increases and tax cuts(slight variations of both).

So, it seems to be more about style than substance in the final choice, if you take their positions at face value.

In regard to the Labour side, 2 MP's have now endorsed no deal over no Brexit. That is interesting since the media focus entirely on the anti-no deal MP's on the Tory side.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7252971/Fresh-Labour-split-second-MP-says-No-Deal-no-Brexit.html

Quote:
A Labour MP who voted against Theresa May's Brexit deal three times has said she would now 'take No Deal' if it meant the UK actually leaves the EU.

Sarah Champion said she had been playing 'poker' when she voted against the existing deal because she hoped defeats would force Mrs May to improve her offer.

But Ms Champion today appeared to concede the strategy had backfired and had resulted in her now having to accept that a No Deal Brexit may be the only way to deliver on the result of the 2016 EU referendum.

Ms Champion becomes the second Labour MP to have spoken publicly about potentially supporting a No Deal split from Brussels after Caroline Flint did the same last month.

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Little John



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PostPosted: Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hunt has merely been forced to ape Johnson's position because he knows that attitudes are hardening generally on Brexit in the wider population and are already hard as granite among the Conservative party membership.

Meanwhile, there are, by all accounts, about 26 Labour MP's who would vote for no deal over another extension.

The reality of their own imminent political mortality is finally beginning to dawn on the minds of MPs in Westminster.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am now convinced that Johnson has resigned himself to fighting a general election he doesn't want. I think if he attempts any other path, he'll eventually be forced into that election (pre-brexit), and has decided that it is tactically better to look like he's in control of events by calling it himself.

The Brecon and Radnor by-election might never happen. Johnson may decide it is better to go for the general election before that by-election allows people to get a feel for how the BXP/tory dynamic is playing out.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Hunt has merely been forced to ape Johnson's position because he knows that attitudes are hardening generally on Brexit in the wider population and are already hard as granite among the Conservative party membership.


I'd put it slightly differently. I think it is obvious that May's backstop really is dead, in the sense that there is no possible timeline where this parliament ratifies it. Attitudes are polarising, because support for the compromise position has collapsed completely.

Quote:

Meanwhile, there are, by all accounts, about 26 Labour MP's who would vote for no deal over another extension.


All 26 would also take a general election over no deal.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

From tomorrow's Times:
Quote:

Boris Johnson wants to hold an early general election “while Jeremy Corbyn is still around”, senior allies have said as his team plans to overhaul the Conservative Party’s campaign machine.

The frontrunner for the Tory leadership appeared tonight at a fundraising dinner with his rival, Jeremy Hunt, that was attended by 100 Conservative donors in an attempt to boost the party coffers and build an election war chest.

The £1,000-a-head event in central London, where donors questioned the candidates directly, was intended to help to secure more than £1 million. Sources said that the party had been left in “dire financial straits” under Theresa May after donors abandoned it amid concerns over Brexit.

Sir Edward Lister, who is charged with overseeing Mr Johnson’s first 100 days in power if he wins the leadership, is planning to ramp up recruitment and pump more money into Conservative headquarters to ensure that the party is on an “election footing”.

The party has released extra funding for the final hustings tonight at the Excel centre in east London to create a rally-style atmosphere. The new leader will be announced on Tuesday morning at the QEII centre in Westminster.

Mr Johnson has made clear that holding an election before Brexit has been delivered would be an “absolute folly”. Senior allies said, however, that planning was under way to go to the polls by the summer of next year.

Members of Mr Johnson’s team are concerned that getting legislation through parliament with a majority of three, as is expected after a by-election next month, could prove impossible.

Sir Edward’s team is said to be preparing for a general election either being forced on the party in a vote of no confidence or Mr Johnson having to call a snap election once Brexit was delivered.

One senior member of Mr Johnson’s team told The Times: “There’s a desire to get this done while Corbyn is still around. Labour is utterly divided — Brexit is killing them. Labour is in no fit state to fight a general election.”

There is concern among Mr Johnson’s team that the Labour leader could be forced to stand down after bruising rows within the party over Brexit and antisemitism. Another member of Mr Johnson’s team said: “Jeremy Corbyn being opposition leader is a positive for us. It means we don’t have to spend time doing the groundwork we’ve already done on him on his successor.”

This week Mr Johnson used a head-to-head debate with Mr Hunt to hit out at the “semi-Marxist, job-destroying lunacy” of Mr Corbyn. He suggested he believed that the Labour leader was personally antisemitic.

A spokesman for Mr Johnson said, however: “There are no plans for an election before 2022. The focus is on winning the leadership campaign.”

Dominic Grieve, a former attorney-general, said that ex-cabinet ministers could be among those who feel they have no choice but to vote down a Johnson administration to prevent a no-deal.

The pound fell by nearly 1 per cent today, to its lowest level since April 2017, on renewed fears of a hard Brexit.

At the donors’ dinner Mr Johnson was asked if he would support a third runway at Heathrow and whether he was prepared to prorogue parliament to deliver a no-deal. Mr Hunt was questioned on his tax plans and whether there was “too much power” in the hands of bodies such as the Electoral Commission, which fined the Vote Leave campaign and referred it to the police.

Donors who were invited included Roger Gabb, who has given the party £717,950 but nothing since the 2017 election; Jamie Diner, a hedge fund manager who has given £290,000; Mohamed Amersi, who has given £267,000; and Alan Halsall, who has donated £142,000.


There you have it. Johnson is going to adopt May's first strategy: "Corbyn is hopeless, we should be able to beat him easily."

Got to love this line:

Quote:

It means we don’t have to spend time doing the groundwork we’ve already done on him on his successor.”


Euphemism for "gargantuan smear campaign".
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Little John



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PostPosted: Wed Jul 17, 2019 9:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

10 Labour MP's have now formally said they would vote with Johnson for a No Deal

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1154249/brexit-news-latest-boris-johnson-no-deal-labour-conservatives-eu-uk-parliament
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yup.

As eurointeligence also write.. could be even higher. Chances of parliament stopping a no deal are reciding.

Quote:
Meet the Labour no-dealers

We are not sure we agree with the consensus according to which the risk of a no-deal Brexit has gone up in the last few days. Most commentators underestimated that risk in the past because they bought into the complacent view that the UK parliament would somehow stop it. We always said the risk was high. But we also think there is still a good chance of a deal. The two are causally related. Once people realise that the deal - as opposed to some unicorns - is the only way to stop no-deal, the deal suddenly becomes much more attractive. Playing Brexit as a three-way game was Theresa May’s fatal political error.

Another contributing factor behind that realisation is the position taken by some Labour MPs. A Labour MP, Sarah Champion, shocked a lot of people yesterday with her comments on TV that she would rather have a no-deal Brexit than no Brexit. The Huffington Post UKreported last night that there were 8-10 Labour MPs in that camp. We think this is probably enough to frustrate any Tory rebellion. Since Labour’s latest election manifesto included a commitment to deliver Brexit, it will not be smooth to shift from that position to the exact opposite. A large majority of Labour voters are pro-Remain, but many of those are concentrated around London and the south-east. The contrasting statistic is that two-thirds of Labour MPs are from Leave-supporting constituencies. The views in the country on Brexit have not shifted much - except that the views among Brexiters have hardened a lot. Those Labour MPs fear for their seats - and we believe that the true number may well exceed 8 or 10.

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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
10 Labour MP's have now formally said they would vote with Johnson for a No Deal

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1154249/brexit-news-latest-boris-johnson-no-deal-labour-conservatives-eu-uk-parliament


We need to be careful about exactly what that means. The article is misleading.

Quote:

BORIS JOHNSON’s Brexit plan received a massive boost after it was revealed 10 Labour MPs would be willing to back a no deal exit from the EU in order ensure the UK leaves.


This means that those Labour MPs would vote with the government if it brought a pro-no-deal bill/motion to the house, or if the opposition was trying to prevent no deal with an amendment of however.

What it does not mean is that they would would vote to support the government in a VonC, even if that VonC is only happening to prevent no deal. Sarah Champion is not going to keep this tory government in office in order to get brexit, quite simply because she can argue that Labour is not committed to remain.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Wed Jul 17, 2019 7:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Yup.

As eurointeligence also write.. could be even higher. Chances of parliament stopping a no deal are reciding.


No they aren't.

Quote:

Another contributing factor behind that realisation is the position taken by some Labour MPs. A Labour MP, Sarah Champion, shocked a lot of people yesterday with her comments on TV that she would rather have a no-deal Brexit than no Brexit.


But she did not say whether she'd rather have a Labour government than either of those things, did she? People are reading things into her comments which aren't actually there.

There's more than enough tories who want to stop no deal to compensate for these Labour leavers. Far more than would vote to bring down their own government to stop no deal. Stopping no deal looked like it needs bringing down the government for quite some time now.

Quote:

Those Labour MPs fear for their seats - and we believe that the true number may well exceed 8 or 10.


And do they think that voting against their own party in a crucial no-confidence vote is going to help them be re-elected? I don't think so.
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