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Brexit process
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 8638
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:

A territorial border will once again exist between the UK and the rest of the world and, to the extent the part of that border that adjoins Ireland will be hard, soft, or somewhere in between, is entirely a function of intransigence on the part of the EU and Irish governing class and the dirty games they are prepared to play.


The EU has no choice in this either. If there's no internal border in the UK then there cannot be a soft border between NI and the Republic unless the whole of the UK stays in the customs union.

There really are only two available outcomes:

(a) UK stays in the customs union, no hard border between NI and Republic
(b) UK leaves the customs union, hard border between NI and Republic

TM is apparently pursuing some sort of magical third option which is this:

(c) UK leaves the customs union, no hard border between NI and Republic, and the apparent contradiction is resolved by some yet-to-be-specified super-duper trade deal.

Only one problem with this plan: it's theoretically impossible, even if the EU had any intention of co-operating. The only trade deal that could allow the Irish border to stay open is one that involves the UK effectively remaining in the customs union.

or possibly:

(d) NI stays in the customs union, rest of UK leaves. The DUP will bring her down sooner than let that happen, it opens up a massive can of worms with SNP demands for the same deal, and her own MPs won't accept it.

What I do not understand is why TM is still pursuing this logically impossible goal. What is the point? All it does is delay the inevitable decision about who to betray, in a situation where time is not on her side.

She either has to admit that the UK is not going to leave the customs union either, or she must call Ireland's bluff and say there is going to be a hard border in Ireland after all.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

At least Rees-Mogg understands....

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/04/anti-brexit-tories-back-dup-position-on-irish-border-issue

Quote:

Rees-Mogg made clear that there could be no difference between different parts of the UK, but also that Britain as a whole needed to have the freedom to diverge from the EU on regulations after Brexit.

“We cannot align the regulation of one part of the United Kingdom with the European Union. If we align the whole of the United Kingdom then we haven’t left the European Union so there is a logical impossibility of doing what the Irish government proposes,” he told reporters after the meeting.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
clv101 wrote:
To summarise, in order to avoid a hard border in both Ireland and between parts of UK , we need this alignment of regulation, otherwise known as staying in the SM / CU. If then we want to have influence over SM / CU rules we need to stay in EU.

Or we could reunify Ireland, which I think the Good Friday Agreement has provisions for if both the north and south call for it.

Or hard boarder in Ireland... Or the Irish sea.

Pick an option, any option, all have negative consequences.


No. There is not and will not be any hard border between parts of the UK. That is a bullshit Aunt Sally you have erected along with all of the rest of the traitors to this nation.


It's not my erection! It's May's in saying Northern Ireland will remain in regulatory alignment with the EU!
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
As does staying in the EU.

And what are those compared to what the government is actually proposing?
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming2 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
As does staying in the EU.

And what are those compared to what the government is actually proposing?


Ultimately we become an appendage of Greater Europe. This was always about the destiny of the UK: are we to remain an independent country, or become a mere region of the United States of Europe? The negative consequences of the latter are well known: no control over immigration, subject to a bloated, anti-democratic bureaucracy in Brussels which controls our fisheries and agricultural policy.

But these arguments have been rehearsed ad-infinitum. We are not going to agree on the best way forwards, but we can surely all agree that Theresa May has to make a decision on who to let down. Somebody has to come out of this as the loser, and it is in nobody's interest to continue fudging it in the hope that some logically impossible solution is going to emerge.

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johnhemming2



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PostPosted: Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

OK

I admit it.

I dont really care how bendy our bananas are.

What i do care about is how good our public services are and that there is social mobility in the UK. Still we are now to leave the UK whatever impact that has on the poorer people in the UK.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Having just watched the start of Newsnight, I am now convinced that Theresa May does have a plant, and it is for a "very soft brexit" which keeps the whole of the UK in the customs union.

I can't personally see the EU agreeing to anything that isn't a complete stitch-up that her own MPs will reject.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Who'd have ever thought we'd end up relying on the DUP to save democracy in the UK?
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming2 wrote:

What i do care about is how good our public services are and that there is social mobility in the UK.


Both of which have got much worse since we joined the EU.
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 05, 2017 8:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Both of which have got much worse since we joined the EU.

On what planet is that true? There may be issues with social mobility and I personally think that is worse, but you really cannot substantiate the argument that public services are much worse than 1972.
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Who'd have ever thought we'd end up relying on the DUP to save democracy in the UK?


Yes, those fecking Irish Wink are a nuisance.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Social mobility has gradually reduced since we abolished Grammar Schools and joined the EU. I wonder which one is the true cause?
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
Social mobility has gradually reduced since we abolished Grammar Schools and joined the EU. I wonder which one is the true cause?

I tend to agree with you about this that the reduction in the number of Grammar schools has entrenched privilege. Birmingham still has some Grammar Schools, however.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It might have been possible to argue that the abolition of grammar schools has limited social mobility for a small number of people from the bottom rungs of society. But, only if there was the economic mechanism for that upwards mobility to express itself. But, that mechanism itself has fallen away, So, the lack of grammar schools is secondary issue. The primary one is the underlying collapse of the middle class.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Grammar schools and full grants enabled many bright working class kids to go to the top universities. I know that quite a few from my old school went from the poorest parts of London on to Oxford, Cambridge and some of the other top unis. One person from my year went on to found Direct Line Insurance I am told, although I don't remember him myself.
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