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Brexit process
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
Posts: 1976

PostPosted: Tue Dec 05, 2017 7:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The abolition of the direct grant system in the 1970s was followed by a substantial drop in the proportion of state educated children at Oxbridge.
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Potemkin Villager



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PostPosted: Tue Dec 05, 2017 7:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming2 wrote:
The abolition of the direct grant system in the 1970s was followed by a substantial drop in the proportion of state educated children at Oxbridge.


I think the notion that Camford offers students a superior education to other seats of learning is not backed by objective evidence. Many of these institutions alumni evident in public life seem to be total f++kups.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 8640
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

From the Guardian rolling update on Brexit:

Quote:

Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, has said that the DUP spent five weeks trying to get hold of a draft text of the UK-EU Brexit deal and that, when it finally saw it yesterday, it was “a big shock”.


Well, that answers that question. Theresa May was negotiating behind the backs of the DUP, even though the key sticking point was Ireland and she needs their votes to do almost anything at all.

What a cock-up. TM is as bad at management as Gordon Brown.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-dup-northern-ireland-labour-party-theresa-may-revoke-article-50-a8092556.html

Quote:

Title: Jeremy Corbyn's Labour must use its power to stop Brexit – now


Quote:

Retaining the single market and customs union without full EU membership is a politically unsellable and constitutionally unacceptable halfway house. It does not even pretend to have given effect to Brexit, and at the same time abandons our seat at the table of political change on the continent.

Remember that famous “democratic deficit”? It would be exacerbated. Remember those complaints about immigration? They would not be resolved.


This is absolutely true. Leaving the EU but staying in the customs unions and/or the single market would be the worst-of-all-worlds outcome. Everybody would despise it, regardless of which way they voted at the referendum.

Quote:

Time to propose an alternative: one that is demonstrably right and can be sold to the electorate.

Brexit should be abandoned – and it should be the Labour Party that slays this particularly loathsome dragon.

[snip]

It should advocate the withdrawal of the UK’s Article 50 notification – crucially, without recourse to anymore referenda.

“Wouldn’t that be undemocratic?” comes the inevitable retort. The answer depends upon which conception of democracy you espouse: an American populist conception that rests upon rule by plebiscite, or one that is British to its core: one with Parliament at its centre.


I am not sure that will slay the dragon. Or rather, it might just create an even bigger dragon. But the truth remains: there are only two viable options. One is to remain a full member of the EU, and the other is to leave the EU and strike out alone, without a deal on Brussels' extortionate terms. The events of the last few days have made this ever more clear - Theresa May has tried to use slippery language to create a fudge, but this strategy could only ever work if there was an acceptable "half-way house" outcome, the details of which are yet to be agreed. What is happening now is that this fiction is being exposed as a fiction.

There's only two ways out of this - a decision has to be made whether we go for a full-on hard brexit, or whether we stay in the EU. And that decision has to be made either by parliament (either before or after another general election), or by a second referendum. If Theresa May and the tory party are two cowardly to bite this bullet, the inevitable result will be a political car crash of gargantuan proportions. Just as the truth about the Irish border is coming to light now because there are no words in the English language that can paper over the ugly truth, the same will rapidly become the case about the halfway house outcome.

The question is what happens first: Theresa May resigns, her own MPs oust her as leader, or Parliament votes no confidence and calls a general election.

If none of those things happens and we get a worst-possible-Brexit halfway house, then the tories will be annihilated at the next general election. We can only hope that out of political self-preservation, her own MPs take action to prevent this outcome.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What I thought most Brexiteers in government want is to leave the EU but have a trade deal with it similar to Canada's. This is the equivalent of being in the customs union but not having the freedom of movement. What is wrong with that?

Regarding the F***ups in government from Camford, they are the ones who come from the Public School system which is a breeding ground for psychoses of various sorts.
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think Canada is in the Customs Union.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

They get most of the benefits of being in the customs union.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maybe a Canada-style deal, tweaked to cope with the Irish situation, could work.

I have no faith that Theresa May is capable of delivering it though. She's handling these negotiations with all of the skill and deftness she handled her disastrous election campaign. She's making the same type of mistakes: failing to consult, not having a workable game plan, not knowing how to cope when things go wrong, and trying to cover up real problems that everybody can see are real problems, with words which amount to "up is down."

"Nothing has changed! Nothing has changed!"

We needed a top quality leader to get this thing right. We needed an Atlee or a Churchill. But we've got a Baldwin.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What she should have done:

Decide on the best possible realistic outcome of the Brexit negotiations, consult the major stakeholders capable of blocking it (including the DUP and the tory brexiteers), and then gone to the EU with a workable gameplan.

What she has actually done:

Decided on a strategy behind closed doors, which has turned out to be hopelessly misjudged, failed to consult at all with the major stakeholders, and then tried to keep the show on the road by using ambiguous language.

She should never have agreed to the EU's sequencing of talks, and she should have cleared the planned end-point and game plan with the DUP and her cabinet. And if she couldn't get either of those things, she should have resigned.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

May's not the only incompetent. We've also got Johnson, Gove, Davies, Fox... muppets the lot of them.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We had no option over the sequencing of the talks; it's what the EU decreed. If we had refused it would have been hard Brexit months ago. Not what TPTB want.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It should have been hard Brexit months ago

Or, rather, it should have been Brexit months ago. Which is the same thing.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 2:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
We had no option over the sequencing of the talks; it's what the EU decreed. If we had refused it would have been hard Brexit months ago.



Then that is what should have happened. Although i am not so sure it would have: the Irish may have attempted to get the EU to reconsider. In other words, the UK should have used the Irish border issue to force the EU to negotiate more reasonably on other things instead of simply issuing decrees.
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Potemkin Villager



Joined: 14 Mar 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 5:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
What she should have done:

Decide on the best possible realistic outcome of the Brexit negotiations, consult the major stakeholders capable of blocking it (including the DUP and the tory brexiteers), and then gone to the EU with a workable gameplan.

What she has actually done:

Decided on a strategy behind closed doors, which has turned out to be hopelessly misjudged, failed to consult at all with the major stakeholders, and then tried to keep the show on the road by using ambiguous language.

She should never have agreed to the EU's sequencing of talks, and she should have cleared the planned end-point and game plan with the DUP and her cabinet. And if she couldn't get either of those things, she should have resigned.


We are where we are though! (sorry couldn't resist that one) Few of the key persona are likely to change in the near term. Problem is that it is impossible to identify wise, sane and competent alternatives sitting on the reserves bench.

I will say that Varadkar, despite being ideologically closely aligned with the Tories is most unlikely to change his position. The last time a member of the pro treaty Blueshirts signed up to a hard border in Ireland the result was not a happy one.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 5:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Varadkar can't change his position, it is very hard to see how the DUP can change their position and a large proportion of the tory party will not accept "UK-wide regulatory alignment". There's three ways this can end: complete reversal of Brexit, full-on hard brexit, or the EU changing its tune because it realises it has pushed the UK into an impossible position, and offering a bespoke deal that can break the deadlock. For example, the EU could offer the UK full membership with an opt-out of freedom of movement, which could in turn lead to pro-EU tory MPs doing a deal with Corbyn to stop Brexit or hold a second referendum.

If nobody is prepared to back down then there is a real possibility that the EU ends of offering the UK a truly terrible deal at the last minute, MPs reject it, and we crash out of the EU with no deal, and with neither side prepared for that outcome. Total chaos would follow, but given the current state of affairs this possibility has got to be taken seriously, because it is the default outcome that will happen if nobody gives in on their red lines.

There is an anti-Brexit majority of MPs at Westminster. They have the power to stop Brexit. The reason they are not doing so is partly because they "want to respect the result of the referendum", partly because they are hoping for a "soft brexit" and partly because they are non-Labour MPs who are terrified of a Corbyn government. If it looks like we are heading for a hard brexit, it is possible those anti-Brexit tory MPs will bring down the current government and support a Corbyn government that will stop it.
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