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2018 - China to hit peak oil...
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
Posts: 3376

PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2017 2:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I consider "improvement" to be a benefit for a minority of the total population, from the appropriation of an excessive share of available finite resources. I.e greed wins, but not in the long term. Sustainable means a subsistance level existence which is what every other species could expect if it were not for the ravages of the human population, which is hell bent on benefitting itself regardless of the effect on the rest of life. This is if you call such trivia as helium filled party balloons, clip on red noses, latest strip football team shirts and miriads of other crap a "benefit". I'm just as bad, I like green woodwork tools, sythes, sharpening equipment. I can pretend it's useful and so doesn't fall into the trivia category, but I bet that wouldn't impress the 25% of insects remaining after the losses over the last 27 years.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4102
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Back to the topic in hand.

What are the thoughts of everybody on the implications of Chinese gas, oil and coal production peaking around 2020?

Personally, despite the shift by the Chinese government into electric cars, renewables and energy inefficiencies I think the peak in energy production will herald a major economic crisis in China and the world and accelerate the transition into Scarcity Industrialism.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 4269
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Back to the topic in hand.

What are the thoughts of everybody on the implications of Chinese gas, oil and coal production peaking around 2020?

Personally, despite the shift by the Chinese government into electric cars, renewables and energy inefficiencies I think the peak in energy production will herald a major economic crisis in China and the world and accelerate the transition into Scarcity Industrialism.

My first thought would be that it is highly unlikely that China or anywhere else will hit peak oil gas and coal at the same time. My second thought is that one fifth of the worlds population finding it can not increase energy use from it's own resources will start the world down the post peak oil cliff and we will have to dust off a lot of old doomer discussions. Rolling Eyes
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 5264
Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

China's fossil fuel consumption has been growing dramatically for 15 years, with ever rising imports. Domestic production has been rising more slowly. China's oil imports are second only to the us. China's coal based pollution is so bad that cutting consumption is a very high priority. They use relatively little gas. In this context peaking domestic production is not of any immediate significance, other than an indication of the severity of the next oil price spike. They can afford all the imports they need.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

PS_RalphW wrote:
China's fossil fuel consumption has been growing dramatically for 15 years, with ever rising imports. Domestic production has been rising more slowly. China's oil imports are second only to the us. China's coal based pollution is so bad that cutting consumption is a very high priority. They use relatively little gas. In this context peaking domestic production is not of any immediate significance, other than an indication of the severity of the next oil price spike. They can afford all the imports they need.

Perhaps all they really need but $100 Brent would price millions of newly middle class Chinese out of a car and back to the scooters and bicycles.
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BritDownUnder



Joined: 21 Sep 2011
Posts: 238
Location: Hunter Valley, NSW, Australia

PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 12:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

When I was working in China on a gas-turbine power plant a local engineer and communist party member said that they didn't really want gas power plants for two reasons. One, they could not yet produce the gas-turbine technology themselves and disliked importing them, especially from the US. Two, China did not have enough gas to run them. Hence they are going renewable.

From what I understand they are also developing a lot of non-OPEC oil fields in places like Equatorial Guinea, Argentina and Sudan and at the same time keeping a tight grip on the South China Sea as a possible 'reserve' fuel tank to help them to transition fully to renewable.

No country and especially not China wants to spend hard earned money overseas on importing things when they can produce electricity from renewables and hydro in their own country. When they do have to import things they often like to have total control and ownership of the supply chain.

Given what they are up to in Australia and New Zealand, a lot of Chinese companies have been buying resources like coal mines, lithium mines and also in New Zealand they are buying a lot of houses and farms. Even baby milk powder is swept off Australian supermarket shelves by gangs of Chinese small scale exporters (OK this is because the Chinese product has quality issues). In short I would say that China is doing on a national scale what 'preppers' in the West are doing on an individual and family scale. Clever people, not to be underestimated.
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 12:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BritDownUnder wrote:
Clever people, not to be underestimated.

As a government they do seem to have a better long term strategy than most.
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adam2
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Joined: 02 Jul 2007
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 12:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Does the remaining oil in the UK part of the north sea still belong to the UK ? Or has China now purchased it, directly or indirectly.

Some countries prohibit the foreign takeover of crucial infrastructure and mineral resources. We not only allow it but seem to offer active encouragement referring to "inward investment" rather than to a "takeover"
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BritDownUnder



Joined: 21 Sep 2011
Posts: 238
Location: Hunter Valley, NSW, Australia

PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Does the remaining oil in the UK part of the north sea still belong to the UK ? Or has China now purchased it, directly or indirectly.

Some countries prohibit the foreign takeover of crucial infrastructure and mineral resources. We not only allow it but seem to offer active encouragement referring to "inward investment" rather than to a "takeover"


If you believe the Daily Mail CNOOC (China National Overseas Oil Company) produces 11% of the oil in the North Sea in 2016. Apparently they even got a tax credit to produce this oil as a result of their 'inward investment' in the UK Oil and Gas sector. I am sure they probably sell it to the highest bidder (however that is decided? London Petroleum Exchange maybe?). However if the UK was in crisis and was short of Oil and asked CNOOC very nicely if they would be so good as to 'give' the oil to the UK government I am not sure what the answer would be.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3754249/China-BIGGEST-crude-oil-operator-North-Sea-amid-concerns-growing-influence-Britain.html

In Africa I things are a bit simpler with royalty payments and the like.

One thing is for sure. From my experience Oil and Gas (gas anyway) is a very dirty business and full of very ruthless and self interested people and organisations.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The article makes clear that oil and coal are expected to peak soon...

Quote:
Far from China’s coal resources supplying abundant energy for the foreseeable future, the new paper forecasts that China’s domestic coal production is due to peak imminently — around 2020.



Quote:
Within China, available data demonstrates unequivocally that the EROI of fossil fuels exhibits “a declining trend mainly due to the depletion of shallow-buried coal resources and to the move away from conventional oil and gas resources.”

Whereas in the 1990s, the EROI of China’s coal was at around 35, this had declined to about 29 by 2012. It is forecast to drop to 25 and below in coming years.

Similarly, the EROI of China’s oil and gas had reached a high of around 14 in the late 1990s, declining to 9.9 by 2012. It too is predicted to plateau slowly downwards in coming decades.

China’s largest field, the Daqing oil field, provides a clear case study of this process. Just to maintain existing production levels and to reduce the decline rate, China has had to use advanced enhanced oil recovery techniques known for their “high cost and environmental impact”, leading to a lower net energy yield.

This has led Daqing’s EROI to drop as low as 6.4 in 2012.

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