PowerSwitch Main Page
PowerSwitch
The UK's Peak Oil Discussion Forum & Community
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

Global food
Goto page 1, 2  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    PowerSwitch Forum Index -> Preparations
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
clv101
Site Admin


Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 8765

PostPosted: Mon Aug 17, 2020 2:14 pm    Post subject: Global food Reply with quote

Does anyone know of any good resources for tracking the global food market. Thinking about Covid19, the grain silos in Lebanon, the floods and storms in USA and China, heatwaves, drought, locusts, wars etc...

Does anyone bring all this together in an accessible, systematic and timely way? How does this year's harvest compare to recent years? Which regions or commodities are in particularly bad shape?
_________________
PowerSwitch on Facebook | The Oil Drum | Twitter | Blog
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
adam2
Site Admin


Joined: 02 Jul 2007
Posts: 8114
Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Mon Aug 17, 2020 2:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am not aware of any reliable data on physical stocks. Some governments publish data but this may be manipulated, and does not include privately held stocks.

Commodity prices of wheat and other grains give a guide as to the balance between supply and demand. Only a partial guide though as the prices reflect market SENTIMENT which does not always reflect actual conditions.

Here is one such site. Beware a deluge of adverts for investment opportunities, and for agrochemicals.
https://www.investing.com/commodities/grains
_________________
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 6574
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Mon Aug 17, 2020 5:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Try this.
https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0820.txt
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
kenneal - lagger
Site Admin


Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 12352
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The UK grain harvest is predicted to be down by a third according to the Guardian because of the adverse weather last autumn and this spring attributed to global warming.
_________________
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
clv101
Site Admin


Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 8765

PostPosted: Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That sounds a lot!? What's the standard deviation?
_________________
PowerSwitch on Facebook | The Oil Drum | Twitter | Blog
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
kenneal - lagger
Site Admin


Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 12352
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Mon Aug 17, 2020 11:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
That sounds a lot!? What's the standard deviation?


Haven't got the foggiest, Chris.
_________________
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 6574
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't have the numbers in hand but I would estimate the recent storm in Iowa wiped out more grain crops then the entire UK yearly harvest. Not to worry though as other areas of the US and Canada will make up the difference and enjoy higher prices brought on by the lack of Iowa competition.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 5794
Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Chinese president got some stick recently at the start of a national programme to reduce food waste. Diners at restaurants were asked to order one less meal than the number in the party. Chinese traditionally over order food to show their generosity in restaurants, so the policy was lampooned.

It does suggest that China is very concerned about their food supply
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
clv101
Site Admin


Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 8765

PostPosted: Tue Aug 18, 2020 7:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
Not to worry though as other areas of the US and Canada will make up the difference and enjoy higher prices brought on by the lack of Iowa competition.

Can't have it both ways, either other areas will make up the difference or prices will rise.
_________________
PowerSwitch on Facebook | The Oil Drum | Twitter | Blog
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
BritDownUnder



Joined: 21 Sep 2011
Posts: 791
Location: Hunter Valley, NSW, Australia

PostPosted: Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You could try the Food and Agriculture Organisation site or the USDA as mentioned previously. Also look at this USDA website.

It looks difficult to get good numbers on imports and exports as probably some countries don't like to tell. From my research it looks like there are four countries in the world that produce the most food over a wide variety of food types. These are China, the USA, India and Brazil. Of these China and India tend to consume most of the what they produce and the USA and Brazil are major exporters.
Other smaller countries tend to import as lot of their food such as the UK, Japan and Singapore for example. You can also get some interesting stats such as the biggest importers of dairy products are China and the UK. Other countries such as Australia and New Zealand don't produce much food but have a large surplus relative to population in some food groups.
From personal experience when I was working in China the land is used very efficiently and there is almost no unused or 'waste' land and some type of food seems to be growing in the fields when it seemed very cold.
_________________
G'Day cobber!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 6574
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Not to worry though as other areas of the US and Canada will make up the difference and enjoy higher prices brought on by the lack of Iowa competition.

Can't have it both ways, either other areas will make up the difference or prices will rise.
Basic economics 101 my man. A shorter supply will increase the price reducing demand to meet the supply. What we had was a predicted surplus which was keeping the price low discouraging or reducing acres planted. That surplus is now reduced and will be until another crop is harvested.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 6574
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Futures contracts for December delivery of corn have risen 20 cents per bushel after the Iowa storm to $3.44/bu.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
kenneal - lagger
Site Admin


Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 12352
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Tue Aug 18, 2020 3:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
clv101 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Not to worry though as other areas of the US and Canada will make up the difference and enjoy higher prices brought on by the lack of Iowa competition.

Can't have it both ways, either other areas will make up the difference or prices will rise.
Basic economics 101 my man. A shorter supply will increase the price reducing demand to meet the supply. What we had was a predicted surplus which was keeping the price low discouraging or reducing acres planted. That surplus is now reduced and will be until another crop is harvested.


While I am not worried about the price but the overall supply I suspect that others who import grain to poorer countries will be very worried about the price as well as supply. The UK can afford to import at a slightly higher price without is causing problems but if it get much higher it will impact on overall spending and hence the health of the economy as it will push the economy into a recession.

What is most important is being able to import at all and that problem will come as sea level rise and even more extreme weather take hold.
_________________
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 6574
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Tue Aug 18, 2020 4:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Keep in mind that Iowa is mostly corn and soybean land and the corn is primarily used as animal feed and ethanol production. Low demand for gasoline and it's ten percent ethanol blend had already depressed corn prices and meat production is suffering by bottlenecks at the processing plants trying to keep the line workers healthy. What you or I might see is another $0.25/ pound on meat of any type but that might be more from the cost of re configuring the processing lines at the plants then from any fluctuation in the feed supply.
I've already seen some small increases in food prices but bought a couple of good New York sirloin steaks last week for $3.00/ pound.
What has really gone up is cleaning supplies. Cool
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
BritDownUnder



Joined: 21 Sep 2011
Posts: 791
Location: Hunter Valley, NSW, Australia

PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 11:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

According to the Australian TV program Landline that I watched yesterday the global wheat production was a record for the latest growing season at 720 million tonnes. Apparently the production was 100 million tonnes higher than 20 years ago, just enough to match global population increase I guess.

Australian production was close to a record at 27 million tonnes and the program commented that Australian yield per hectare was near the lowest in the world reflecting the unfavourable climate. Apparently New Zealand had the highest production yield per hectare but none was exported - it was used to feed dairy cows.
_________________
G'Day cobber!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    PowerSwitch Forum Index -> Preparations All times are GMT + 1 Hour
Goto page 1, 2  Next
Page 1 of 2

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group