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New coronavirus in/from China
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clv101
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Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 6:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Human to human transmission confirmed:
https://apnews.com/14d7dcffa205d9022fa9ea593bb2a8c5
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
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Location: The Marches, UK

PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 7:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lots of evidence appearing:

https://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2020/01/zhong-nanshan-14-medical-staff-infected-with-new-coronavirus-pneumonia-including-video.html

https://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2020/01/hong-kong-chp-provides-latest-information-on-pneumonia-cases-of-novel-coronavirus-infection-in-mainland-and-korea-and-revise.html
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clv101
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 20, 2020 8:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The symptoms, at least at first are just 'flu-like'. For the hundreds of formally identified cases, how many more people are currently sick at home with the flu, not realising that they are suffering from this new virus?
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 2:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

With these sorts of airborne diseases, realise the official advice given is not in your best interests, it is for group management.

This enveloped virus could be disinfected fairly easily, then what..?

http://www.cfsph.iastate.edu/Disinfection/Assets/AntimicrobialSpectrumDisinfectants.pdf

You could spend your life avoiding contact, but anyone who has to mix for work, it's pointless trying to live as an island.
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 11:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I bet big pharma are looking gleefully at the situation, being able to market another ineffective money spinner. (With probable adverse effects which will be more damaging than the disease). There are simple ways of reducing the risk, but they aren’t lucrative.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For each new coronovirus case that pops up in another country (like US today), from someone flying from China, presumably there are a couple hundred people who have spent hours breathing the same air on the aeroplane. Are all these individuals identified and quarantined?
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fuzzy



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Spreading widely. Now admitted in the US. Wuhan in attempted quarantine:

https://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2020/01/coronavirus-latest-china-tries-to-close-off-wuhan-city-at-the-center-of-outbreak.html

People do seem to be fairly ill with this one.

Presumably Powerswitchers have face masks anyway? Not much else for an airborne virus. Alcohol [externally] is effective.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2020 8:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like this is going to be a big deal, 17 dead now and the region of China it originated from is going to be locked down 10am Thu. No long distance public transport. A lockdown like this, covering some 11 million people is quite a thing. Hard to imagine a similar lockdown of London! Probably too late though with multiple cases well outside the area, including Brazil (flew from China, arrived on the 18th).

This is a decent write up, useful background info too:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/chinas-mystery-coronavirus-everything-need-know-symptoms-treatment/
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RenewableCandy



Joined: 12 Sep 2007
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2020 9:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was in Wuhan in 1988. I recall how hot and hazy it was (air pollution wasn't a thing in China at the time). Building was happening everywhere (though not on today's scale), the builders' scaffolding was made of lashed-together bamboo, and the said builders climbed this with their bare feet.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
Looks like this is going to be a big deal, 17 dead now and the region of China it originated from is going to be locked down 10am Thu. No long distance public transport. A lockdown like this, covering some 11 million people is quite a thing. Hard to imagine a similar lockdown of London! Probably too late though with multiple cases well outside the area, including Brazil (flew from China, arrived on the 18th).

This is a decent write up, useful background info too:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/chinas-mystery-coronavirus-everything-need-know-symptoms-treatment/


Yeah, starting to look quite interesting.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Thu Jan 23, 2020 12:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It'll get interesting when the mortality rate matches that of Spanish Flu which killed between 10% and 20% of people infected.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
It'll get interesting when the mortality rate matches that of Spanish Flu which killed between 10% and 20% of people infected.


Have a read of the National Risk Register, page 12-15, to see potential impacts of pandemic influenza in UK.
SARS and MERS had higher mortality rates, but relatively low-impact. A 2% morality rate (~20x higher than regular flu) associated with high infection rate due to little/no population immunity would be highly disruptive - basic services would break down as folk were too sick or scared to work.

https://t.co/0MELuOiYkw
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 23, 2020 1:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
Little John wrote:
It'll get interesting when the mortality rate matches that of Spanish Flu which killed between 10% and 20% of people infected.


Have a read of the National Risk Register, page 12-15, to see potential impacts of pandemic influenza in UK.
SARS and MERS had higher mortality rates, but relatively low-impact. A 2% morality rate (~20x higher than regular flu) associated with high infection rate due to little/no population immunity would be highly disruptive - basic services would break down as folk were too sick or scared to work.

https://t.co/0MELuOiYkw
At which point we get to find out how having to rely on highly information technology dependent, just-in-time delivery systems due to having to service the needs of a monstrously overpopulated country happens to be a really, really bad idea.

Good.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 6462
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Thu Jan 23, 2020 4:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:

SARS and MERS had higher mortality rates, but relatively low-impact. A 2% morality rate (~20x higher than regular flu) associated with high infection rate due to little/no population immunity would be highly disruptive - basic services would break down as folk were too sick or scared to work.

https://t.co/0MELuOiYkw

Today's figures were 528 cases and 17 deaths. That works out to a 3.2% fatality rate. Hopefully that will go down once the healthcare personnel know what they are dealing with and find effective treatments.
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
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Location: The Marches, UK

PostPosted: Thu Jan 23, 2020 7:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

We can watch here:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

I love world maps, even mercator ones
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