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New coronavirus in/from China
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 5040
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As predicted the social unrest is now starting to pop up around the world.

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/03/31/hung-m31.html

Quote:
Roadblocks, raids of supermarkets and mass quarantine violations by desperate workers forced to work and find food are spreading across the poorest neighborhoods of Latin America, where the official response to the coronavirus outbreak has focused on police state measures and pushed the region to the brink of open dictatorship.

As the coronavirus pandemic spreads to every corner of the world, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization warned of potential world food shortages from supply chain disruptions caused by decline of seasonal migrants, trade barriers, sanctions and currency fluctuations.

After weeks of roadblocks protesting water shortages hampering their protection against the coronavirus pandemic, entire communities across Honduras are now taking to the streets to protest the lack of food and income due to the measures taken by the Juan Orlando Hernández administration to contain the outbreak. A “national and absolute curfew” imposed on March 16 has left hundreds of thousands without an income and led to shortages in staple goods.

The protests against food shortages began on March 24, when public transportation workers in northern Tegucigalpa led crowds to block the main highways of the country’s capital. Bus driver Luis Guzmán told AFP, “We live day by day and have no fixed income. If we don’t work, we don’t eat.” He added that his 4-year-old daughter “is asking for food and I have no money to even buy beans.”


In the UK, the universal credit scheme has been overwhelmed from over 100k trying to get set-up.

Millions have run out of cash but any government payments will not start to June.

Millions will start starving soon or be entirely reliant on friends, family and charity for survival. Social unrest is coming in our poorer urban centre soon.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10983
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
"The Crackpot who advised Trump on coronavirus policy"

There's a lot of "climate denialism" in this as the "information" on the virus and epidemiology came from someone who knows nothing about what he is informing people on; a lawyer informing on virology and epidemiology and contradicting the experts.


Yes, it has the same feel as climate denialism, because it is being driven by the same mindset. It is not quite unique to the US, but it infests their national life in ways that it doesn't in any other modern culture.

It's a combination of a total disregard for science and reason, and an absolute, total failure to realise how serious a problem that is. "We have the right to believe whatever the F--k we want to, because we're American." So they end up believing that climate change is a communist plot, the world is only 6000 years old and that having no restrictions on gun ownership makes society safer. Really believing it.
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Snail



Joined: 14 Apr 2011
Posts: 857

PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That bunch of wild goats story taking over the town Laughing
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10983
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
As predicted the social unrest is now starting to pop up around the world.

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/03/31/hung-m31.html

Quote:
Roadblocks, raids of supermarkets and mass quarantine violations by desperate workers forced to work and find food are spreading across the poorest neighborhoods of Latin America, where the official response to the coronavirus outbreak has focused on police state measures and pushed the region to the brink of open dictatorship.

As the coronavirus pandemic spreads to every corner of the world, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization warned of potential world food shortages from supply chain disruptions caused by decline of seasonal migrants, trade barriers, sanctions and currency fluctuations.

After weeks of roadblocks protesting water shortages hampering their protection against the coronavirus pandemic, entire communities across Honduras are now taking to the streets to protest the lack of food and income due to the measures taken by the Juan Orlando Hernández administration to contain the outbreak. A “national and absolute curfew” imposed on March 16 has left hundreds of thousands without an income and led to shortages in staple goods.

The protests against food shortages began on March 24, when public transportation workers in northern Tegucigalpa led crowds to block the main highways of the country’s capital. Bus driver Luis Guzmán told AFP, “We live day by day and have no fixed income. If we don’t work, we don’t eat.” He added that his 4-year-old daughter “is asking for food and I have no money to even buy beans.”


In the UK, the universal credit scheme has been overwhelmed from over 100k trying to get set-up.

Millions have run out of cash but any government payments will not start to June.

Millions will start starving soon or be entirely reliant on friends, family and charity for survival. Social unrest is coming in our poorer urban centre soon.



I agree. It looks very likely that many more people globally will meet an early death for secondary effects of the pandemic than are killed by the virus itself.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 6170
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 7:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PS_RalphW wrote:
Big rise in deaths to 367 - 25% increase from yesterday. Not sure if this is because it includes earlier non-hospital deaths.

First death in Cambs yesterday.
Perhaps weekend figures finally getting posted by Tuesday?
Death statistics were normally a slowly collected set of figures because the insurance companies and probate courts were in no rush to process anything. Once a week or once a month kept everybody happy. So anything they have for overnight reporting has been thrown together in haste and as we can see has room for improvement.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 6170
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Late in the day updates have Italy now at 105,792 with deaths at 12,428 for a CFR of 11.8%. New daily cases have fallen off with just 4000 new cases for 3/29 down from 6600 on 3/20 .
USA at 181,009 with 3606 deaths. That 181K is 100K less then my math projected from the 15th. Case load had been matching or exceeding my projection very close up to 3/28 at 120k so apparently closures and travel restrictions are working to some extent.
UK CFR now an even 7% with daily new case numbers declining.
I hope all these trends continue and are not just blips in the data reporting.
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Vortex2



Joined: 13 Jan 2019
Posts: 1702
Location: Somewhere on reddit

PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Any one else having trouble squaring the circle?

Currently most of us are in a weird place:

* We may be afraid of catching the virus - it has potential of causing grave harm to some of us.

* We may have short term money issues.

* We may have lost our job or business.

* We may be worrying about how to earn money when this is all over.

* We may be worrying about the coming effects of the broken supply chains, especially for all that stuff made in China which we rely on.

* We may be worrying about possible coming food shortages.

* We may be worrying about possible increasing criminality

* We may be worrying about possible coming political instability.

* We may be worrying about the impoverished economic landscape that might await us - many shops, businesses that we know well could be gone.

* Younger people may be worrying about where their planned career went to.

* We may be worrying about the possible effects of hugely increased national debt.

We may also have all the above worries for members of our families.

I have absolutely no idea of where we are headed.
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Vortex2



Joined: 13 Jan 2019
Posts: 1702
Location: Somewhere on reddit

PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
Late in the day updates have Italy now at 105,792 with deaths at 12,428 for a CFR of 11.8%. New daily cases have fallen off with just 4000 new cases for 3/29 down from 6600 on 3/20 .
USA at 181,009 with 3606 deaths. That 181K is 100K less then my math projected from the 15th. Case load had been matching or exceeding my projection very close up to 3/28 at 120k so apparently closures and travel restrictions are working to some extent.
UK CFR now an even 7% with daily new case numbers declining.
I hope all these trends continue and are not just blips in the data reporting.

There certainly feels to be a slowing for many - but not all - countries.

Hopefully it's real and will have a major effect.

That said, we have had to lock down the place tight to stall this bug.

So in a few weeks it will all grind to a halt .. silence in the streets, no more screaming ambulances ... but what then?

A few steps outside the house, a meal out ... and what ... we're off to the races again.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 8049
Location: UK

PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
Late in the day updates have Italy now at 105,792 with deaths at 12,428 for a CFR of 11.8%. New daily cases have fallen off with just 4000 new cases for 3/29 down from 6600 on 3/20 .
USA at 181,009 with 3606 deaths. That 181K is 100K less then my math projected from the 15th. Case load had been matching or exceeding my projection very close up to 3/28 at 120k so apparently closures and travel restrictions are working to some extent.
UK CFR now an even 7% with daily new case numbers declining.
I hope all these trends continue and are not just blips in the data reporting.
This is all encouraging. But, does not make what happens next any easier. Do we remove lock-downs and go back to square 1? Or, at least some limited version of square 1 that lies below our medical system's capacity to cope? Then rinse and repeat for God know how many months? At the end of which the fewest people will have died, but our economy will be in ruins. Indeed, would we even reach that point? Would the social unrest that is likely to occur with such an extended lock-down produce sufficient disruption as to make the maintenance of said lock-down more or less impossible?
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 8049
Location: UK

PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vortex2 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
Late in the day updates have Italy now at 105,792 with deaths at 12,428 for a CFR of 11.8%. New daily cases have fallen off with just 4000 new cases for 3/29 down from 6600 on 3/20 .
USA at 181,009 with 3606 deaths. That 181K is 100K less then my math projected from the 15th. Case load had been matching or exceeding my projection very close up to 3/28 at 120k so apparently closures and travel restrictions are working to some extent.
UK CFR now an even 7% with daily new case numbers declining.
I hope all these trends continue and are not just blips in the data reporting.

There certainly feels to be a slowing for many - but not all - countries.

Hopefully it's real and will have a major effect.

That said, we have had to lock down the place tight to stall this bug.

So in a few weeks it will all grind to a halt .. silence in the streets, no more screaming ambulances ... but what then?

A few steps outside the house, a meal out ... and what ... we're off to the races again.
exactly
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Vortex2



Joined: 13 Jan 2019
Posts: 1702
Location: Somewhere on reddit

PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just watched "The Coming Pandemic" on Amazone Prime .. loadsa fun (not) and very prescient.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 6170
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm 24 days into this social distancing. It started out as fever and cough 4 days after I attended pubic meetings and I followed the then advice of staying at home for 14 days along with my wife that had attended the same meetings. By the time the 14 days were up the alarm was more general so I am sill staying at home with about a once a week trip in for perishable supplies. This cuts my travel and interaction with others down to less then one seventh of what it had been. Also while out today everyone was practicing social distancing with the exception that only about 15 percent are wearing masks but that goes along with some guidance that only those already sick need to be wearing a mask. Old guidance by the way especially for old and infirm people.
I expect more and more jobs will be found to be critical to one supply line or another and work restrictions lifted on them on a case by case basis to get some people back to work. The restaurant and Bar business will be the last to be let back on line and even then people will avoid any crowded establishment.
Perhaps assembly line workers will work wearing masks and gowns when supplies become available with temperature checks at each end of each shift.


Last edited by vtsnowedin on Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:27 pm; edited 1 time in total
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10983
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Indeed, would we even reach that point? Would the social unrest that is likely to occur with such an extended lock-down produce sufficient disruption as to make the maintenance of said lock-down more or less impossible?


We aren't going to get anywhere near that point. We've got one month at the most before large numbers of people start flagrantly breaking the restrictions, and the government will be neither willing nor able to clamp down hard on it. However, by then I expect the NHS capacity will be large enough to provide everybody who needs one with a ventilator, at which point the restrictions might as well be lifted anyway, provided support continues to vulnerable people who need to continue isolating.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10983
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 10:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

13 year old dead in London, no health issues.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/breaking-uks-youngest-coronavirus-victim-21789319
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clv101
Site Admin


Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 8657

PostPosted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
fuzzy wrote:
I have been following the news for a while over here:

http://www.avianflutalk.com/latest-news_forum3.html

It's the usual mix of guff and horror, but they have interesting stuff including huge numbers of twitter videos which I can't technically watch. Basically there are films of body bags in hospitals, apartments etc, armed hazmat paras on the streets, knocking on doors. Real grim reaper stuff. I don't believe we will be told the facts except by historians in 200 years.


I've been paying close attention to Twitter, whilst there's no verification and any individual video could be fake or a different evert entity - there are lots, and just the number of them adds credibility.


Remember all those videos from China a couple of months ago? We weren't sure exactly when or where they were from, if could be taken at face value...

Well, see Channel 4 News today, report from New York:
https://youtu.be/qIRml8gyeSE

It's exactly the same. Those videos from Wuhan were legit.
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