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New coronavirus in/from China
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 8523
Location: UK

PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2020 12:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
Little John wrote:
Putting aside any arguments about the veracity of that analysis, not least on the back of data from countries like Sweden and others, a second lockdown is not feasible in any event due to its equally and, arguably even greater devastating effects

Agreed. But equally, 50,000 needing hospital treatment in eight weeks time is also 'not feasible'.
Here is the timeline for cases and deaths for Spain.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/spain/





The second wave of cases vastly outstrips the second wave of deaths, in much the same was as our own data is currently indicating what we should expect here. There can be only two reasons for that. Either;

The virus did its worst in the first wave and and the second wave is, as a consequence, producing far fewer deaths.

Or

Looking at the data from all countries around the world, lock-downs have had little effect, in the long run, on the trajectory of the virus both in terms of cases or deaths. All any of them have done, at best, is extended the period over which the cases and deaths occurred and that is all. But, then that much was always blindingly obvious. Herd immunity is the only exit and always was and the only choice you get is whether you arrive at that point slowly or quickly.

So , if the tiny death rate relative to the case rate for the second wave in Spain is due to it's lock-downs, then they will be having to do those lockdowns for years to come in order to keep the death rate down at any given time. In which case, their economy will collapse long before they reach herd immunity.

Which, if true, leads on to the subsidiary question of the extent to which our societies can stand the damage done to them from the lock-downs more or less than they can stand the damage done to them from having a short, sharp, high death rate. The answer is not even contestable. It never was.

Looking at those charts, from what I can see, the answer is mostly due to the virus having already done its worst. But, there may also be some limited stretching of the death rates due to lock-down. Either way, the lock-downs are an unmitigated disaster in both economic and political terms. The former of which will affect mortality rates for decades to come. The latter of which has seen national governments deliberately propagate lies and propaganda on a scale that has even taken my breath away and has led to them being able to effectively put entire populations under house arrest. The backlash from which will also be felt for decades to come. Not least due to the bourgeoisie and petite bourgeoisie being exposed here, as they were over Brexit, for being the willing house slaves of the globalist ruling class's attempts to stamp out any dissent in their agenda to reinstate BAU. That will not be forgotten and will have its own political consequences.


Last edited by Little John on Tue Sep 22, 2020 8:56 am; edited 2 times in total
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Catweazle



Joined: 17 Feb 2008
Posts: 2606
Location: Little England, over the hills

PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

or: Doctors have learned how to treat the disease better

or: Vital supplies and equipment have now been manufactured

or: Sensible people are still isolating themselves, leaving the "bulletproof" youth to make up the numbers infected

or: Another reason we don't yet understand.
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 12348
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2020 2:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
........................ Not least due to the bourgeoisie and petite bourgeoisie being exposed here, as they were over Brexit, for being the willing house slaves of the globalist ruling class's attempts to stamp out any dissent in their agenda to reinstate BAU. That will not be forgotten and will have its own political consequences.


You're sounding more like a Muslim Fundamentalist nutter by the day, LJ.

The death rate is lower because the methods of treatment have improved according to reports on the TV. I have heard nothing about the rate of hospitalisation except that they are increasing in numbers following the exponential increase in cases. If the case rate is allowed to continue unabated it would overwhelme and break the NHS as the workers wouldn't be able to keep up their workrate and that can't be allowed to happen. Some sort of lockdown would be necessary to curtail the spread.

The thought that TPTB are intent on breaking the economy that gives them their wealth is too ludicrous for anyone with an ounce of common sense to contemplate. Conspriracy theorists probably won't agree.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 8523
Location: UK

PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Catweazle wrote:
or: Doctors have learned how to treat the disease better

or: Vital supplies and equipment have now been manufactured

or: Sensible people are still isolating themselves, leaving the "bulletproof" youth to make up the numbers infected

or: Another reason we don't yet understand.
Then you should see variation in those charts across countries due to different measures that have been taken. By and large, you don't.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 8523
Location: UK

PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2020 4:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
Little John wrote:
........................ Not least due to the bourgeoisie and petite bourgeoisie being exposed here, as they were over Brexit, for being the willing house slaves of the globalist ruling class's attempts to stamp out any dissent in their agenda to reinstate BAU. That will not be forgotten and will have its own political consequences.


You're sounding more like a Muslim Fundamentalist nutter by the day, LJ.

The death rate is lower because the methods of treatment have improved according to reports on the TV. I have heard nothing about the rate of hospitalisation except that they are increasing in numbers following the exponential increase in cases. If the case rate is allowed to continue unabated it would overwhelme and break the NHS as the workers wouldn't be able to keep up their workrate and that can't be allowed to happen. Some sort of lockdown would be necessary to curtail the spread.

The thought that TPTB are intent on breaking the economy that gives them their wealth is too ludicrous for anyone with an ounce of common sense to contemplate. Conspriracy theorists probably won't agree.
You see, this is the thing Ken Neil. In your supercilious fog of a middle class superiority complex, entirely undeserved, you harbor the misapprehension that you can impugn the personal characteristics of anyone who does not share your views. But, when the millions of people like me respond to that kind of passive aggressive and, increasingly, unabashed sneering, we are the unreasonable ones... apparently.

You are not the only one, of course. And there have been a number of examples of precisely that trait on here. But, right now I am writing this in response to you.

F--k off
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 8523
Location: UK

PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2020 8:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The harder the lock-down, the greater the second wave. Which is exactly what one would expect if one understood even the basic principles of herd immunity

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/sweden-beating-coronavirus-with-herd-immunity-expert-claims-pmmww8b7k

Evidence is mounting that Sweden has beaten the coronavirus epidemic with herd immunity rather than lockdowns, according to a renowned expert on the spread of disease.

Quote:
Sweden’s infection rate has remained low and stable at a time when other European countries are facing a strong resurgence.

In Britain there are 69 cases per 100,000 people compared to just 28 for every 100,000 in Sweden which did not implement stringent lockdown measures this spring.

The infection rate in France is almost seven times higher than in Sweden and the virus is ten times more prevalent in Spain, both countries that implemented strict lockdowns.
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Catweazle



Joined: 17 Feb 2008
Posts: 2606
Location: Little England, over the hills

PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2020 8:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
The harder the lock-down, the greater the second wave. Which is exactly what one would expect if one understood even the basic principles of herd immunity

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/sweden-beating-coronavirus-with-herd-immunity-expert-claims-pmmww8b7k

Evidence is mounting that Sweden has beaten the coronavirus epidemic with herd immunity rather than lockdowns, according to a renowned expert on the spread of disease.

Quote:
Sweden’s infection rate has remained low and stable at a time when other European countries are facing a strong resurgence.

In Britain there are 69 cases per 100,000 people compared to just 28 for every 100,000 in Sweden which did not implement stringent lockdown measures this spring.

The infection rate in France is almost seven times higher than in Sweden and the virus is ten times more prevalent in Spain, both countries that implemented strict lockdowns.


When you tried this flawed argument before I pointed out that you should compare Swedens results with those of neighbouring countries that have similar conditions and customs.

Here's another link.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102257/cumulative-coronavirus-cases-in-the-nordics/
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 8523
Location: UK

PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2020 9:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Meanwhile

Nearly a third of recent ‘Covid deaths’ were not caused by Covid

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/death-certificate-data-covid-19-as-the-underlying-cause-of-death/

Oxford University’s Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) has revealed that, in the last 8 weeks alone, in 29% of the deaths for which Covid-19 was recorded on a death certificate, it was not the underlying cause of death.

Quote:
Overall about one in thirteen deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate did not have the disease as the underlying cause of death; however, this proportion has risen substantially to nearly a third over the last eight weeks.


More lies, in other words.
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Snail



Joined: 14 Apr 2011
Posts: 906

PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2020 11:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for posting that little john.


What do others think?
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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Location: UK

PostPosted: Mon Sep 21, 2020 11:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Snail wrote:
Thanks for posting that little john.


What do others think?
The usual suspects don't deal with facts on this topic now Snail.
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Snail



Joined: 14 Apr 2011
Posts: 906

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2020 12:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wish they would. Or try at least. Christ, I know that's difficult.

I don't care about anybody agreeing or disagreeing with me. My personality ensures this: I'm literally a tribe of one. I don't even feel that comfortable posting here.


Its like fumbling in semi-darkness.

To me, these figures are indicating a decision to inflate covid deaths. Presumably, the inflation has continued into september.

I don't mind if someone gives me something to think about. I would go away and think for a while, and perhaps change my opinion.
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
Posts: 1382
Location: The Marches, UK

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2020 7:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The trouble is we don't know the financials at work. I understand they are paid to flu jab us, which is why GPs always try to sign you up. Presumably they get something for writing covid?
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careful_eugene



Joined: 26 Jun 2006
Posts: 599
Location: Nottingham UK

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2020 12:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Meanwhile

Nearly a third of recent ‘Covid deaths’ were not caused by Covid

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/death-certificate-data-covid-19-as-the-underlying-cause-of-death/

Oxford University’s Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) has revealed that, in the last 8 weeks alone, in 29% of the deaths for which Covid-19 was recorded on a death certificate, it was not the underlying cause of death.

Quote:
Overall about one in thirteen deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate did not have the disease as the underlying cause of death; however, this proportion has risen substantially to nearly a third over the last eight weeks.



More lies, in other words.


This is interesting, but what I can't get my head round is who gains from inflating Covid 19 death figures? I know the government wants a subservient population but they also want a functioning economy, how do they benefit if we go into full lockdown again?
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
Posts: 1382
Location: The Marches, UK

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2020 12:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A long explanation why the test is wrong x 10:

'Because of the high false positive rate and the low prevalence, almost every positive test, a so-called case, identified by Pillar 2 since May of this year has been a FALSE POSITIVE. Not just a few percent. Not a quarter or even a half of the positives are FALSE, but around 90% of them. Put simply, the number of people Mr Hancock sombrely tells us about is an overestimate by a factor of about ten-fold. Earlier in the summer, it was an overestimate by about 20-fold.'

Presumably Hancock really doesn't know this info, as people are starting to press him and he flubbers.

https://lockdownsceptics.org/lies-damned-lies-and-health-statistics-the-deadly-danger-of-false-positives/
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 1353
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

fuzzy wrote:
A long explanation why the test is wrong x 10:

'Because of the high false positive rate and the low prevalence, almost every positive test, a so-called case, identified by Pillar 2 since May of this year has been a FALSE POSITIVE. Not just a few percent. Not a quarter or even a half of the positives are FALSE, but around 90% of them. Put simply, the number of people Mr Hancock sombrely tells us about is an overestimate by a factor of about ten-fold. Earlier in the summer, it was an overestimate by about 20-fold.'

Presumably Hancock really doesn't know this info, as people are starting to press him and he flubbers.

https://lockdownsceptics.org/lies-damned-lies-and-health-statistics-the-deadly-danger-of-false-positives/


HMG likes to conflagrate Pillar1 & Pillar2:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.246882372.1982797327.1600775364-1074100041.1586441110

Most (all ?) Pillar2 testing is being conducted by Deloitte
As well as the tests being inaccurate, fairly sure I've heard that the number of Pillar2 tests are very low - is there somewhere that splits the number of Pillar1/2 tests ?
Remember, the Treasury allocated £10 billion for its “Test, Trace, Contain and Enable” programme (anyone got any shares in Deloite ?)

A bit rich for Julia Hartley-Brewer and the like to complain about this now.....
She's the type of person that has pushed and pushed for private involvement in the NHS...

All testing should have been left to PHE labs and NHS hospitals who should have been provided with additional funding.
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