PowerSwitch

[Vortex]

Hi,

I went to my first "Peak Oil" conference yesterday.

The conference was at the Energy Institute in London and was actually entitled "Oil Depletion - Dealing With The Issues" ... but it soon became clear that it was a "Peak Oil" event.

It was good to meet some of the PowerSwitch & Oil Drum team there ... I'm sure they will wrote a PROPER, erudite and more accurate review of the day in due course!

In the meantime here are a few quick observations:

* There were about 10 speakers and maybe 60 delegates.

* The venue was good - and the lunch was excellent!

* The speakers primarily covered the possible date(s) of Peak Oil occurring ... I came away feeling that 2011 might be about right.

* I was pleased to meet some well qualified "grown ups" discussing Peak Oil etc. On some web forums (not this one!) I feel that maybe everyone is having a collective panic about a totally imaginary problem ...

* I felt that the bias of the talks was on the date of Peak Oil production ... whereas the key (earlier?) date for me is the date when supply/demand becomes noticeably negative.

* There seemed to be a general feeling that even if more oil is found/exploited the implementation timescales might be too long to avoid a supply/demand crunch in the short/mid term.

* I spoke to an oil company visitor - he said that this was "yet another Peak Oil event" and that nothing new was covered. I then asked if he meant that Peak Oil was incorrect ... and he rushed to correct me, saying that it was very real but the presented data was "old news".

* Some visitors seemed to think that the coming fuel shortage would simply be handled by "the market". Others suspected that a more authoritarian government might emerge in order to control energy supply & use.

* One visitor I spoke to had a very clear view of how the economy would contract: first the taxi drivers & small transport firms would fail .... they would try to absorb the increasing fuel costs but would lose the battle in the end. The same who happen to commuters. This would result in more unemployed, and less economic activity from the affected ... which would slow down sales elsewhere. This would in turn hit marginally profitable businesses: reduced profits plus increased overheads would kill these companies eventually ... creating even more unemployed. In due course many low profit, high energy overheads company would disappear. Companies selling "fripperies" would also be badly hit as disposable income plummeted. He didn't say how he saw this saga ending up ... probably just as well ...

* There seemed to be a consensus that there needs to be more economic modelling of the effects of the coming energy problems.

* One visitor I met felt that we were underestimating the effort that the US and other countries would apply to the problem of energy decline once they received a "wake up call". I too can imagine a huge flurry of startup companies and novel products emerging rather quickly once the mindset to do it exists. The western world will simply not whinge & whine as the lights flicker ... many firms & individuals will rise to the challenge. I just hope they have enough time.

* One elderly visitor told me that he has insisted that any young members of his family do NOT go into energy intensive industries - he is trying to force them to enter "recession proof" careers ... and seems to be having some success.

* A speaker from the floor said that he wasn't fussed if Peak oil was in 1, 5 or 10 years ... the problem is STILL racing at us VERY quickly.

* Claire Durkin, Head Of Energy Markets, DTI gave a presentation. To me this was a key talk ... she is the senior government civil servant responsible for UK energy security.
- She used the word "challenging" when almost any aspect of future energy supplies was mentioned
- She was clearly much more worried about natural gas supplies
- She mentioned that the government were "very keen on hard security" ... she was discussing the risk to oil tankers in the Molaccan Straits at the time.
- She seemed to acknowledge Peak Oil and the incipient problems ... but seemed to say that the government would NOT pre-warn the population ... it was for others to do that. Maybe I imagined it, but I think that she also suggested that any early warning could cause people to go on a wild energy orgy before the shortages arrive!

So did I learn anything knew by attending this conference?

Well, I have found that Peak Oil is NOT just an Internet chat room fantasy ... it's real enough ... and will start being a problem within 5 - 10 years.

I have also found out that the UK government is aware of the coming problem ... but is not going to make any fuss about it.
Perhaps they hope the market will sort it out ... or perhaps they will "firefight" with legislation as the situation gets worse?
Or perhaps a new hydrogen fusion invention - or bird flu - will intervene at the last minute to save the day?

On a personal level, I must say that I came away a bit shaken.

Web forum posts can seem "unreal" ... but seeing several experts laying out the facts, with a degree of government corroboration is rather more shocking.

To put it bluntly, "business as usual" will end in 5 - 15 years time. I am 52 so this will severely affect me & my wife and our children.
When the problems arrive who is going to care if we are cold and hungry?
Nobody - everyone will have enough problems of their own.

My wife & I are already preparing for a lower energy lifestyle ... but I think that it's time to have a word with my children about what the future might hold.

[Andy Hunt]

[clv101]

Great comments and it was good to meet your yesterday.

[Vortex]

[Keela]

Thanks for that report Vortex - plenty of stuff to think about there!

[Erik]

[MacG]

[Vortex]

[julianj]

All I'd like to add is that I was extremely disappointed at Claire Durkin's naff, juvenile and insulting presentation. She couldn't even get the acronyms right (saying WEA several times - when she either meant IEA, or WEO - World Energy Outlook). Which is not encouraging in the No1 civil servant supposedly concentrating on these matters.

When she arrived, during Energyfiles' Dr Mike Smith's Peak dates and supply gap presentation, I watched her carefully (she was near us), and she had a gobsmacked, aghast expression on her face, as though she had not heard this stuff before....though I doubt it was news to either anyone here or in the audience. Then her presentation quoted IEA peak dates, which had already been utterly demolished by (ASPO & Reading Uni's) Dr Roger Bentley.

I don't think they have a plan. I think the relevant govt dept is just locked into groupthink and folly.

The presentations are due to be put up on the web, so I'm sure you can make up your own mind. We'll post the link when it becomes available.

Nice to meet you Vortex.

[Vortex]

[Joe]

[julianj]

I'll just reply briefly - nobody I spoke to in the pub afterwards was very impressed with Claire Durkin. I expect top civil servants to master their briefs. I'm an arts graduate, not an engineer or economist or mathematician or researcher, but that didn't stop me getting my head around the problem of Peak Oil, like many other people here, on my own time.

If the govt is being advised by people who believe in the IEA garbage, then how does anyone expect them to make the right decisions? Or rather leave all decisions to "The Market", which effectively absolves them of all responsibility.

[Totally_Baffled]

Quick question - If we think the government believes the IEA numbers - then what was the governments motivation for Iraq?

Are we saying that the UK/US government possibly didnt invade Iraq for some oil related reason?

Surely it is duplicitous to accuse the UK government of both believing the IEA's flawed numbers AND invading Iraq for oil?
_________________
TB

Peak oil? ahhh smeg.....

[MacG]

[GD]