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Typhoon Gonu
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RevdTess



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 3:13 pm    Post subject: Typhoon Gonu Reply with quote

Anyone watching the cat 4/5 typhoon Gonu heading towards Oman and the straits of Hormuz? Apparently it's the most powerful cyclone ever seen in the region.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/na200702_5day.html#a_topad
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Andy Hunt



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 3:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Blimey! Is there any vital infrastructure in its path?
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RevdTess



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 3:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A very large export terminal and 1/4 of the world's daily crude oil shipping Shocked

Most of the production is to the north of the straits, somewhat protected. Shipping should be significantly delayed though. Brent prices just went over $70 again.
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Andy Hunt



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 3:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I read somewhere recently that in some quarters Brent prices are now seen as being a better indicator of the oil market than WTI, the latter being too low for some reason.

Is this something you've come across at all Tess?
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RevdTess



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 3:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Andy Hunt wrote:
I read somewhere recently that in some quarters Brent prices are now seen as being a better indicator of the oil market than WTI, the latter being too low for some reason.

Is this something you've come across at all Tess?


Yeah, it's been a big factor in our thinking over the last 6 months. Rather old news in the market though.
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Erik



Joined: 21 Sep 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 6:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's being closely followed at TOD.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2623
Certainly makes for perversely exciting reading... Confused
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Billhook



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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Location: High in the Cambrian Mountains

PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 7:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can anyone recall how many US carriers & screen vessels are now in the straights ?

If Rita could wreck the Thunderhorse . . . .

Wishful thinking I know, but it would put GW as a security issue onto a whole new level.

Regards,

Bill
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Erik



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 8:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Andy Hunt wrote:
Blimey! Is there any vital infrastructure in its path?

The Qalhat LNG export terminal is located right in the cyclone's path, and it's probably not designed to be especially storm-proof.

I think most of their LNG is destined for Korea and Japan, which may sound far away from us but... the Koreans already have a reputation for outbidding anyone on the LNG spot market. So if they have to buy extra cargos to make up for a long outage at Qalhat then it could have a knock on effect on any other LNG purchasers who finds themselves short this year. Spot prices could go through the roof.
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 8:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nice photo at: http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=39346

Cat 5 at 12 GMT today but will weaken slightly as it approaches land

I love this from Reuters
Quote:
In OPEC member the United Arab Emirates, a shipping agent said no official warning had been issued although the country's eastern coastline opens onto the Indian Ocean.

"The note we all received today just mentioned we should be expecting some wind and rain and we did not get any official warning," said the Abu Dhabi-based agent.

A Dubai-based shipping agent also said no official warning had been sent to his company.

"If it was dangerous, we would have been informed," he said.
Take the brolly to work tomorrow then Smile
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RevdTess



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 8:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

biffvernon wrote:

"If it was dangerous, we would have been informed," he said.


Made me chuckle too Wink
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 9:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's a pretty map:
http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=39370

and there's discussion at http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=38501&st=0&gopid=992810&#entry992810
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mikepepler
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 05, 2007 8:56 am    Post subject: Re: Typhoon Gonu Reply with quote

Tess wrote:
Anyone watching the cat 4/5 typhoon Gonu heading towards Oman and the straits of Hormuz? Apparently it's the most powerful cyclone ever seen in the region.

I think that's understating the situation - from what I've read so far, most forecasters have *never* seen anything this big in the region, by a long way.

I found a blog with some pictures of what happened last time Oman had some heavy rain, never mind a typhoon:
http://omaniidiot.blogspot.com/2006/12/muscat-drowned.html
http://omaniidiot.blogspot.com/2006/12/car-piles.html
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Andy Hunt



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 05, 2007 9:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tess wrote:
biffvernon wrote:

"If it was dangerous, we would have been informed," he said.


Made me chuckle too Wink


New Orleans Part II?
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mikepepler
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 05, 2007 10:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There's a wikipedia page for it already:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Gonu

Tracking information is here:
https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php
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mikepepler
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 05, 2007 11:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.javno.com/en/world/clanak.php?id=50122
Quote:
A shipping agent told Reuters Oman's Sur export terminal, which handles 10 million tonnes per year of liquefied natural gas exports had been closed because of the storm and the Mina al Fahal oil terminal, that ships all Oman's 650,000 barrels per day of oil exports, was likely to shut soon,

The Sultan Qaboos port, which handles vehicles and containers, was also closed, another shipping source said.

meanwhile, in the rest of the area:
Quote:
A shipping agent for nearby OPEC member the United Arab Emirates said on Monday no warning had been issued there. Operations at the United Arab Emirates' port of Fujairah were continuing as normal.


Perhaps they're all simply saying "Insha'Allah" (if it is God's will...)
I heard that in Bahrain, the locals would say "Insha'Allah" and then drive at high speed without their seatbelts on...
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