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Tess
Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 2502
Location: Ferryside, Carmarthenshire
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 Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 7:26 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | "The entire focus on $100 oil is frivolous," said Tim Evans at Citigroup Futures Research in New York. |
In other words, "I lost money betting that prices would go down and now I look like an idiot so I'm going to whine that the market is stupid."
(not that I ever do that, oh no)  |
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clv101
Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 4235
Location: Bristol
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| Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 7:34 pm Post subject: |
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The Oil Drum's Robert Rapier won his $1000 bet that oil wouldn't reach $100 in 2007, won it by one trading day!
Also of note is that ?1 is worth only $1.98 today.
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Vortex
Joined: 16 May 2006
Posts: 5842
Location: Silent running.
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| Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 7:48 pm Post subject: |
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I feel that the main effect of $100 oil is that many "Oil Reaches $100" articles will come out of journalists' cupboards, and the media will make a big fuss.
This could then trigger all sorts of odd investment and other behaviour.
I bet the speculators have been waiting eagerly for this day ... they could make a killing from the moronic day traders etc. |
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syberberg
Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 973
Location: The People's Republic of West Yorkshire
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| Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 7:52 pm Post subject: |
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| clv101 wrote: | The Oil Drum's Robert Rapier won his $1000 bet that oil wouldn't reach $100 in 2007, won it by one trading day!
Also of note is that ?1 is worth only $1.98 today. |
Lucky fella.
I'm not too concerned about the ? at the moment, when it gets to about the $1.50 area, then I'll get worried. |
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clv101
Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 4235
Location: Bristol
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| Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 8:25 pm Post subject: |
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| syberberg wrote: | | clv101 wrote: | The Oil Drum's Robert Rapier won his $1000 bet that oil wouldn't reach $100 in 2007, won it by one trading day!
Also of note is that ?1 is worth only $1.98 today. |
Lucky fella. |
Not really, it seems he doesn't get to keep a cent of it due to some overly keen US game wardens.
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aliwood
Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 392
Location: Teesside, North-East
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| Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 9:16 pm Post subject: |
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| Vortex wrote: | Just like:
"Hey, the assassination of that Crown Prince Ferdinand guy is not important ... he's nobody special ... just an uppity Serb." |
And just like - well actually he was shot by a Serb, he was Franz Ferdinand, Archduke of Austria-Este, heir to the Austrian throne and purveyour of songs for your musical delight.
Pernikatickly yours...
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Alice
Knitting Information and Inspiration Distributor
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Vortex
Joined: 16 May 2006
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Location: Silent running.
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aliwood
Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 392
Location: Teesside, North-East
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| Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 9:20 pm Post subject: |
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Weeeeeellllllll, he probably is if you dig far enough. I'm with Baldrick though, "It's all about some bloke called Archy Duke..."  
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Alice
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Andy Hunt
Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 5871
Location: Bury, Lancashire, UK
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| Posted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 11:25 pm Post subject: |
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I feel sorry for the ostrich.
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Andy Hunt
http://greencottage.burysolarclub.net
"The sooner you fall behind, the more time you have to catch up" |
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Andy Hunt
Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 5871
Location: Bury, Lancashire, UK
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| Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2008 12:02 am Post subject: |
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From the BBC article:
| Quote: | | "Until we get more supply or demand starts to take a hit, there is no reason we can't see any number." |
To me, that's the key sentence - we're talking physical shortage of the resource, the price is irrelevant.
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Andy Hunt
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Keela
Joined: 05 Sep 2006
Posts: 1639
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| Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2008 12:21 am Post subject: |
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Independent trader claims $100 oil record
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/73a44d1e-b97b-11dc-bb66-0000779fd2ac.html
| Quote: | Some observers questioned the validity of the price mark when it emerged that the peak was the result of a trader ? one of the ?locals? who trade on their own money buying from a colleague just 1,000 barrels of crude oil, the minimum allowed. The deal on the floor of the New York Mercantile Exchange was at a hefty premium to prevailing prices, industry insiders said.
Stephen Schork, a former Nymex floor trader and editor of the oil-market Schork Report, said that the price jump was due to a trader seeking his one minute of fame.
"A local trader just spent about $600 in a trading loss to buy the right to tell his grandchildren he was the one who did it,? Mr Schork said. ?Probably he is framing right now the print reflecting the trade.?
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Interesting take. And probably some truth in it?
Ps bolds are mine |
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Tess
Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 2502
Location: Ferryside, Carmarthenshire
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| Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2008 12:42 am Post subject: |
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| Sally wrote: |
Interesting take. And probably some truth in it?
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Almost certainly. At the time, you could have bought WTI oil for $99.60 on the electronic exchanges, so to pay $100 on the floor of the nymex pit was purely an exercise in ego... |
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Tess
Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 2502
Location: Ferryside, Carmarthenshire
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| Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2008 12:50 am Post subject: |
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| Andy Hunt wrote: |
| Quote: | | "Until we get more supply or demand starts to take a hit, there is no reason we can't see any number." |
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Very true. Otherwise the price is just pushed around by speculators, technical support and resistance levels, and big geopolitical events which might suggest future changes to supply or demand. If we go convincingly over $100, all things being equal we could quickly end up at $105 and $110. What speculators would likely do is keep buying until OPEC adds more supply (and inventories build) or there are more clear signs of a slowdown in global oil demand. At the moment no one knows if a US slowdown will matter, if China, India et al can take up the slack. |
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oilslick
Joined: 11 Apr 2007
Posts: 666
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| Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2008 1:03 am Post subject: |
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| Sally wrote: | Independent trader claims $100 oil record
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/73a44d1e-b97b-11dc-bb66-0000779fd2ac.html
| Quote: | Some observers questioned the validity of the price mark when it emerged that the peak was the result of a trader ? one of the ?locals? who trade on their own money buying from a colleague just 1,000 barrels of crude oil, the minimum allowed. The deal on the floor of the New York Mercantile Exchange was at a hefty premium to prevailing prices, industry insiders said.
Stephen Schork, a former Nymex floor trader and editor of the oil-market Schork Report, said that the price jump was due to a trader seeking his one minute of fame.
"A local trader just spent about $600 in a trading loss to buy the right to tell his grandchildren he was the one who did it,? Mr Schork said. ?Probably he is framing right now the print reflecting the trade.?
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Interesting take. And probably some truth in it?
Ps bolds are mine |
That's completely made my evening...if I'd known it would have been that easy I might have done it myself!
$600 for an item on every news programme tonight and to be remembered at least for a little while. Shall we chip in for $200, 1000 barrels...if we sit on them we'll get our money back in a couple of years anyway |
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clv101
Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 4235
Location: Bristol
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| Posted: Thu Jan 03, 2008 1:10 am Post subject: |
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| Tess wrote: | | At the moment no one knows if a US slowdown will matter, if China, India et al can take up the slack. |
Really? It seems highly unlikely to me that a US slowdown wouldn't reduce global demand. The US is so elephantine, consuming either directly or indirectly through imported products, approaching 50% of the world's energy. How could China take up the slack with increased demand at the same moment as US demand for Chinese production capacity was falling away?
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