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Current Oil Price
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
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Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Mon Oct 01, 2018 5:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PS_RalphW wrote:
.... Next heating oil bill is going to be painful.
....


We've just ordered our next load of 1500 ltrs for 63p/ltr which should last us about 4 months.

Must check the fuel level to see if we can get 2k lts in the tank on the above basis.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

After a few days of fluctuating around $85 Brent crude has nor reached about $86-50, another multi year high.
$100 by Christmas ?

Still well below the all time high of about $140 though.
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raspberry-blower



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PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2018 9:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
After a few days of fluctuating around $85 Brent crude has nor reached about $86-50, another multi year high.
$100 by Christmas ?



Which Christmas are we talking about here?
It certainly won't be this Christmas judging by the way the Markets have been recently.
WTI is around $50 and heading South

There's an upcoming OPEC meeting to boot:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-23/as-oil-plunges-the-real-opec-meeting-will-be-at-next-week-s-g20?srnd=premium-Europe
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raspberry-blower



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PostPosted: Sat Nov 24, 2018 8:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Market Watch: A Death Cross is forming in US oil underlining the unravelling of crude prices
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raspberry-blower



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PostPosted: Tue Dec 18, 2018 10:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oil prices on the crest of a slump at the moment.

Brent down 5.4% today to $56.38
WTI down 7.17% to $46.60
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think the speculators are over correcting and beginning to panic. That will sort itself out in due time.
I paid $2.199 USD per gallon this weekend in Massachusetts but it is still $2.699 locally. If WTI stays below $50 for a month we might get down to <$2.00 gas.
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raspberry-blower



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PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2018 7:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

WTI finished the week at $45.59
Brent at $54.10

Both heading south at a fair rate of knots at the moment
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raspberry-blower



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PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Been a couple of refinery fires in Texas this week.

One of these plants run by BP the other XOM
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adam2
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2019 1:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I continue to find the present relatively low oil price to be a surprise.
Faster than expected decline in production from Ghawar, faster than expected decline at Canterell, and now a new conflict in Libya.
Prices HAVE increased but only very marginally to about $70 for Brent.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2019 2:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

People in the financial sector are expecting a downturn so a shortage of oil won't be noticed, hence no price rise.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2019 3:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
I continue to find the present relatively low oil price to be a surprise.
Faster than expected decline in production from Ghawar, faster than expected decline at Canterell, and now a new conflict in Libya.
Prices HAVE increased but only very marginally to about $70 for Brent.

You must be looking at different charts then I am.
https://www.nasdaq.com/markets/crude-oil.aspx?timeframe=3m
WTI going from $51 to $64 in three months on a pretty steady slope is not marginal.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 08, 2019 4:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was looking at a different but broadly similar chart.
My reference to only a modest increase in the oil price was regarding the last few days. Two depletion reports and the new conflict in Libya seem to have had very little near term effect on prices.

I would have expected the news of the last few days to put at least $15 on the price in addition to the slow, steady climb that has existed for some months.
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RevdTess



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PostPosted: Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
I was looking at a different but broadly similar chart.
My reference to only a modest increase in the oil price was regarding the last few days. Two depletion reports and the new conflict in Libya seem to have had very little near term effect on prices.

I would have expected the news of the last few days to put at least $15 on the price in addition to the slow, steady climb that has existed for some months.


<flashback>

The prompt end of the oil price curve has never really responded to long term issues like that. You might see long term contracts like Dec 2021 moving up relative to Dec 2019, but even then depletion reports were never really a significant price driver. Anyone who trades that far forward will already have done their own research and been following depletion rates for ages. News reports like this are always way out of date and report the market, not lead it. I guarantee most oil traders would look at this and just shrug. They are more interested in how many tankers of crude are available for sale in the north sea next week, and how much is currently in storage in rotterdam relative to current refinery throughput. It's just not a market that looks very far ahead, even for those who own physical facilities.

And Libyan exports haven't been significant for years. There's always been plenty of alternatives when necessary.

</flashback>
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RevdTess



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PostPosted: Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interestingly, if you look at a price history chart of Brent Crude since about 2005 to the present and compare it to Bitcoin from 2017 to the present, you see a very very similar shape: a rapidly accelerating rise to a peak followed by a dramatic crash, a moderate recovery, then another smaller crash followed by a second mild recovery.

Because bitcoin is almost completely driven by speculation, imo it shows how much of the outright oil price is also driven by financial speculation rather than fundamentals. It was always the shape of the price curve - the near term relative to the long term - that was affected by real physical oil flows. People pile into a rising market, and that's what causes spikes and crashes, not really the geopolitics or geology per se.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Tue Apr 09, 2019 3:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
I was looking at a different but broadly similar chart.
My reference to only a modest increase in the oil price was regarding the last few days. Two depletion reports and the new conflict in Libya seem to have had very little near term effect on prices.

I would have expected the news of the last few days to put at least $15 on the price in addition to the slow, steady climb that has existed for some months.

Perhaps the market is a bit slower to react then you think it is. Look at yesterdays change at the bottom of the page. Up $1.32 in one day!! If that becomes a trend for a couple of weeks and you will have your $15.00/b
Also those bad news reports are balanced out by good (or no news) from many other sources about production you don't hear or read about but are given fair weight by market traders.
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