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Gas alert as demand and prices rise
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Aurora



Joined: 24 Jan 2007
Posts: 8502

PostPosted: Tue Jan 05, 2010 7:21 am    Post subject: Gas alert as demand and prices rise Reply with quote

Quote:
BBC News - 05/01/10

Much of the UK is to be blanketed by snow as the cold weather tightens its grip, the BBC weather centre has said.

Snow fell overnight in Scotland - where many schools will stay closed - as well as in northern England and north Wales.

The band of snow is expected to move south during Tuesday, with a covering in some areas of up to 10cm (4ins).

Meanwhile, the National Grid issued a gas balancing alert, for only the second time, asking for less gas use as it brought in more overseas supplies.

The extra gas being brought in - including supplies from Belgium and Norway - is necessary to meet rising demand after a 30% rise on normal seasonal use during the cold snap.

The gas balancing alert (GBA) was issued on Monday afternoon. It warns customers to reduce fuel consumption and encourages suppliers to bring in more gas.

Article continues ...

See also: http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100104-707422.html
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johnhemming



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 05, 2010 10:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

We always have been short of storage. We just haven't had a cold enough period to challenge the system.
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 05, 2010 12:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming wrote:
We always have been short of storage.
And for why? My MP, Sir Peter Tapsell, (Conservative) has opposed proposals for gas storage within his constituency.
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 05, 2010 12:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

biffvernon wrote:
johnhemming wrote:
We always have been short of storage.
And for why? My MP, Sir Peter Tapsell, (Conservative) has opposed proposals for gas storage within his constituency.

Ah sure, why wouldn't he? So would I. Wink
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 05, 2010 12:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why? It's quite close to my home and I expect it to have approximately zero impact on my life.

BTW Ed Miliband will be giving a statement to the House of Commons on Copenhagen after 1530 today. Watch it live, http://bit.ly/4tjIk7
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 05, 2010 10:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Meanwhile on the leccy front:
Quote:
With freezing temperatures set to remain in the UK at least until the end
of the week, power demand remains very strong with the National Grid
forecasting as much as 59 GW for Wednesday, the highest level since January 6
2009 and only 1.7 GW below the record demand of 60.7 GW on December 17, 2007.

Coal-fired generation units have filled the higher power requirements
since the start of the year with coal generation forming the largest
generating block on Monday and early Tuesday, according to National Grid data.
Platts
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Aurora



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PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 8:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
The Independent - 07/01/10

Energy: UK has enough gas for another 65 days

Demand for gas hit an all-time high yesterday during the UK's longest cold snap for more than 20 years. Demand rose to 453 million cubic metres (mcm), smashing the 449mcm record set in January 2003. And it is forecast to climb to 460mcm today.

The National Grid insisted that the unprecedented consumption levels will not leave Britain short. "We are absolutely not going to run out of gas," said a spokesman. "The UK is well supplied." The shadow Energy Secretary Greg Clark stoked energy security fears on Tuesday by claiming that Britain had only eight days of gas left in storage. But the National Grid dismissed the calculation as a "meaningless number" because it ignored both the amount of gas imported and that nearly half of UK demand is met by North Sea production.

Article continues ...
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mikepepler
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 8:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Usual lack of understanding from the news - most of the 65 days in is long term storage (Rough), and can only come out at a certain rate.

Some worthwhile links from the National Grid:

Prevailing view:
http://marketinformation.natgrid.co.uk/gas/frmPrevalingView.aspx

Entry Zone graphs (10m/1hr/24hr)
http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Gas/Data/efd/ezgraph.htm

Storage levels (updated daily at 16:00)
http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Gas/Data/efd/ezgraph.htm

and the old Daily Summary Report is still there, but in the Report Explorer:
http://marketinformation.natgrid.co.uk/gas/ReportExplorer.aspx
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johnhemming



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PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 10:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

They also cut off some big users last night.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 11:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming wrote:
They also cut off some big users last night.


Anyone know which users ? cutting off gas burning power stations could lead to powercuts, depending on how much other generation is available.
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re



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PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 2:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
johnhemming wrote:
They also cut off some big users last night.


Anyone know which users ? cutting off gas burning power stations could lead to powercuts, depending on how much other generation is available.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jan/07/gas-rationing-national-grid-factories
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biffvernon



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PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 2:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming wrote:
They also cut off some big users last night.
Surely if you're on an interruptible supply contract you contract for the possibility that your supply can be interrupted. The price you pay reflects this.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 3:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Having read the article linked to, it would appear that only customers on interuptible tarrifs have been affected.
Whilst this is an indication that supplies are short, I have little sympathy with those who sign up for an interuptible tarriff, and then complain when it IS interupted.

I believe that some large gas users have the facility to burn oil if gas is unavailable, this may therefore slightly increase oil prices, especialy if the situation is similar elswhere in the world.
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Keepz



Joined: 05 Jan 2007
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 6:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Having read the article linked to, it would appear that only customers on interuptible tarrifs have been affected.
Whilst this is an indication that supplies are short, I have little sympathy with those who sign up for an interuptible tarriff, and then complain when it IS interupted.


As the article doesn't do a very good job of making clear, this is not happening because there's not enough gas; it is happening because there is not enough capacity in the pipelines to get gas through to all users at these levels of demand.

If all those users had indicated that they must have gas at all times and were prepared to pay the cost of that, then it would have been worthwhile investing in pipelines that could deliver at higher rates. But since they indicated (by settling for interruptible contracts) that they were prepared to be interrupted, then it was legitimate to conclude that it wasn't.

The fundamental policy question is - should the objective be complete, 100%, guarantee of supply at all times under all circumstances, no matter what the cost?
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Aurora



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PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2010 8:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Fresh Business Thinking - 07/01/10

UK Gas Supplies On Red Alert As Norwegian Imports Falter

McKinnon & Clarke, the UK's largest independent energy consultancy, has called on the Government to take tough decisions and invest in the UK's energy industry or face the reality of running low on energy.

The move comes as the National Grid today issued the second Gas Balancing Alert this week - unprecedented in recent times.

With low gas reserves and record demand, further concern was raised today as Norway's largest gas producer, Statoil, announced that production is down at their Kroll A field - causing a dramatic fall in pipeline supplies to the UK from our biggest import source.

M&C's energy analyst, David Hunter, believes this latest warning throws a spotlight on the UK's precarious energy position.

Article continues ...
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