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TEQs & Peak Oil : Protecting Access to Carbon Energy

 
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jo



Joined: 20 Oct 2007
Posts: 184
Location: London

PostPosted: Mon Oct 22, 2007 10:22 pm    Post subject: TEQs & Peak Oil : Protecting Access to Carbon Energy Reply with quote

Hi TEQs Forum,

Just to bring to your attention that David Fleming is quoted in today's Guardian newspaper :-

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,,2196435,00.html

World oil production has already peaked and will fall by half as soon as 2030, according to a report which also warns that extreme shortages of fossil fuels will lead to wars and social breakdown.

The German-based Energy Watch Group will release its study in London today saying that global oil production peaked in 2006 - much earlier than most experts had expected. The report, which predicts that production will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set new records almost every day last week, on Friday hitting more than $90 (?44) a barrel.

...

The report presents a bleak view of the future unless a radically different approach is adopted. It quotes the British energy economist David Fleming as saying: "Anticipated supply shortages could lead easily to disturbing scenes of mass unrest as witnessed in Burma this month. For government, industry and the wider public, just muddling through is not an option any more as this situation could spin out of control and turn into a complete meltdown of society."

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This reinforces very strongly the rationale behind Carbon Rationing. One of the functions of a coherent system of rationing for Carbon Energy will be to guarantee access to Carbon Energy for the ordinary citizen.

And just as an aside, I have a bet on with Tim Helweg-Larsen of CAT that the current round of crude oil price increases will level off at around $105 per barrel. Any other views out there ?

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RenewableCandy



Joined: 12 Sep 2007
Posts: 12667
Location: York

PostPosted: Tue Oct 23, 2007 11:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ah Tim H-L the very person whose talk first informed me about PO! I wonder how many people took him up on the betting-on-oil-futures idea?...

What do you think will cause the level-off at $105? Big US recession?
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jo



Joined: 20 Oct 2007
Posts: 184
Location: London

PostPosted: Wed Oct 24, 2007 2:40 am    Post subject: My bet is that cost is relative... Reply with quote

Hello to the Candy Man,

Why do I bet $105 per barrel - and pretty stable until the end of 2009 ?

The cost and availability of any resource should have a fulcrum in my view, a point of stabilisation.

The economic idea of "scarcity" only works up to a point in pushing up prices.

My central argument is that cost is relative - there is no absolute figure. It is therefore able to swing, but usually not outside some psychologically acceptable boundaries.

My other relevant position is that regardless of the amount of bills and notes that get printed in the mints, and the amount of debt created, money only retains its value when it is supported by energy supplies.

Money systems of all flavours are in fact "Energy Backed Currency Units" or EBCUs already, even before we consider the proposals of David Fleming and FEASTA.

At some point, the energy-dependent economies will simply downscale their operations, believing the bottleneck to be irreparable in the supply of crude oil.

Most international businesses, if they are wise, will follow suit.

My view is that for crude oil to cost much more than 5 times what it did in 2002, at this stage, would not work.

The cost of energy is not the only faultline in commercial and industrial and transport systems - but it is the foundational one - and I believe the rising prices of power and fuel are already having an impact on economic deliverables.

There is plenty of anecdotal evidence that supermarkets and chain stores are reducing the amount of choice in products made available on shelves.

I would say that return on investment will collapse in many sectors, and that there is already a recessionary slide.

This should halt economic growth quite nicely for a while, and cut the demand for crude oil and shave off excessive price increases.

In the period 2009 to 2012, when most negotiators on Carbon pricing will have started to get the big picture on the nexus of Climate Change and Peak Energy, I would say there will most likely be another ascent in the price of all minerals and fuels, and food as well.

I have read some commentators saying that crude oil prices will peak at around the $300 per barrel level, but I have no view on that.

If you check the www.oil-price.net Crude Oil Price table at the bottom of this forum page you will see what the current "futures" price for crude oil is : today at roughly $110 per barrel.

I'm sticking to $105 per barrel, reached somewhere in the next 3 to 6 months and maintained more or less until somewhere towards the end of 2009.
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Ballard



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 826
Location: Surrey

PostPosted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 12:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

carpet bombing is not nessesary.
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