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Bracing the world for the day when the oil runs out |
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Wednesday, 18 January 2006 |
As the oil price nudged above $64 a barrel yesterday on heightened
concerns about disruption to supplies from Iran and Nigeria, a small
group of geologists, economists and commodity traders was meeting in
London to consider a more fundamental question: when will the world
begin to run out of oil?
Chris Skrebowski, the editor of the Energy Institute's Petroleum
Review, believes peak oil will occur in 2008, at which point the world
will move into "a land without maps where we are all likely to be
poorer".
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According to the University of Reading's Dr Roger Bentley, the
secretary of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas, the
evidence is irrefutable. He points out that 64 of the world's 100 or so
oil-producing countries are already past the point of peak production
and on the downward slope. Although there may be a "mini-glut" as
output is stepped up from Russia, the Caspian and Iraq and new sources
come on stream such as deepwater oil and oilsands, the trend, he says
is unmistakable.
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Mr Lynch is one of the few pundits who forecasts that oil prices will
begin to ease, but as even he jokes: "I have predicted nine of the last
two price decreases."
Full Story from The Independent
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