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Statement of Beliefs PDF Print E-mail
Monday, 14 February 2005

We recognise:

That the evidence backs up the growing consensus amongst the World's leading petroleum geologists and geophysicists that the peak of global oil supplies will occur at some point within the next 10 years, after which there will be a permanent and ongoing decline in the global supplies of oil, followed by a similar peak and decline in natural gas production.

That the percentage of global oil production will be increasingly concentrated in non-OECD countries.

That oil supplies are more relevant than oil production, and that each country will experience their historic peak of oil supplies at different points; the subsequent decline will occur at varying rates.

That there are a reducing number of oil exporters and an increasing number of oil importers.

That the global discovery of oil peaked in 1962 and has been declining ever since.

That the accepted reserve numbers of IEA and USGS are not verified and are likely to be overstated due to political and financial pressures.

That the strong economic advances by China, India and other emerging economies are dramatically intensifying global competition for access to oil reserves and supplies.

That technology, government and the market alone cannot provide a solution to this problem and action must be taken by government, business, community and the individual.

That due to oil being so essential for economies there is a very high risk of intensification of economic, political and military conflict over the control of remaining resources and supplies.

That any solution to the global decline in oil supplies must take into account climate change.

That our economic and social structure has been dependent on cheap oil and gas: transport, food production, plastics, healthcare etc.- which so many jobs, and thus the financial system, rely.

That future trends will be different to the experiences of the twentieth century.

That the prevailing expectations, standards and aspirations of many in modern industrialised societies is a culture based on the cheap and easy supply of oil, and thus any solution must address that culture.

That continued economic growth cannot continue in a world of declining oil supplies without serious consequences for the economy and financial system.


We recognise that it is essential to act immediately, and that every day of delay reduces our options for mitigating the inevitable decline of global oil supplies. We therefore call for Government to urgently:

Conduct a thorough risk-assessment of the impact of declining oil supplies on all aspects of society.

Conduct a full, honest and major public awareness campaign on the reality and consequences of declining oil supplies.

Plan, encourage and enable clean, renewable energy self-sufficiency by 2025.

Plan, encourage and enable crisis-resilience in our food, energy, water and healthcare systems.

Create and then act upon a long-term plan to secure the well-being of every member of a low-carbon economy and society.

Establish measures and policies to encourage efficient use of energy throughout the economy within a framework of reducing total energy consumption, such as Tradeable Energy Quotas (www.teqs.net) or Cap and Share (www.capandshare.org)

Rethink and revise climate change policies and targets in the light of oil depletion data, especially with regards to the climate impact of other liquid fuel replacements such as biofuels, coal-to-liquid etc.

Recognise the fundamental significance of declining oil and thus prioritise the budget allocation to scientific research, energy efficiency, skills development and other policy measures aimed at commerce, industry and individuals, designed to manage the transition to a low-carbon society as speedily and painlessly as possible.

Recognise the importance of oil and gas in agriculture and thus address how food will be grown and distributed in the future.

Pro-actively work on international cooperation on energy resource management and energy solution development - e.g. sign and follow the 'Oil Depletion Protocol' so as to cut imports to match world depletion rate.


We also recognise that relying purely on Government to mitigate the inevitable decline of global oil supplies might abdicate responsibility from other sectors of society and therefore call on individuals, communities and business to:


Engage in awareness raising and discussion with friends and family on the reality of, consequences, and responses to declining oil supplies.

Plan, encourage and enable clean, renewable energy self-sufficiency by 2025 on a personal/community/business level.

Plan, encourage and enable personal/community/business crisis-resilience in food, energy, water and healthcare systems.

Create and act upon a long-term plan to secure their own well-being as a member of a low-carbon economy and society.

Actively support measures and policies to encourage efficient use of energy throughout the economy within a framework of reducing total energy consumption, such as Tradeable Energy Quotas (www.teqs.net) or Cap and Share (www.capandshare.org)

Rethink and revise future individual/community/business expecations in the light of oil depletion data, especially with regards to the climate change.

Recognise the fundamental significance of declining oil and thus prioritise individual/community/business budget allocation to energy efficiency and other measures designed to manage the transition to a low-carbon society as speedily and painlessly as possible.

Recognise the importance of oil and gas in agriculture and thus address how individuals and communities will have access to reliable food supplies.

(Update June 12th 2008)

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